The Early Odds for the Conservative Leadership

 

It is rather odd that Pierre Poilievre has announced for the Tory leadership when he did, on a Saturday, a day when people are liable to miss the news, and when other big news stories are competing for attention. He is also announcing before the date or the rules for the contest have even been set.

The announcement must have been preemptive. His people must have feared someone else might beat him to it and soak up some of his potential support. Who?

Leslyn Lewis, perhaps. But here’s another possibility: Jordan Peterson. Peterson has not dismissed political ambitions. He might or might not have been about to actually declare, but his hints of interest might have started a “draft Peterson” movement.

Peterson might be the only other candidate who stands a chance against Poilievre. Poilievre is a star in question period, and a star in social media. He is fluently bilingual. He is from Ontario, but his rightist politics are in sync with the West. He has cabinet experience. He is eloquent, and has great political instincts.

 It is hard to see who else can go up against him. John Baird has been floated; but Baird just endorsed Poilievre. Brad Wall is not bilingual, and probably not interested. Peter MacKay is still paying off debts from last time.

In theory, given that Poilievre is on the party’s right, there ought to be room for a candidate on the left. But such a candidate probably has no chance of winning. Last time out, Peter MacKay failed to win for the left wing, despite having a far higher profile and far more experience than the three right-wing candidates. This time, the rules have changed to favour the right: from one hundred votes per constituency, the party is going to one member, one vote. That means suddenly most votes are coming from Alberta and the West.

Someone has to run, just to show the flag, to show the party’s diversity, to make it a contest. And as they say, “a week is a long time in politics.” Certainly there are other names being floated. Anything can happen.

But the early line has to be overwhelmingly Poilievre.