Hopeful Thoughts on Ukraine

 

From the BBC, and two days old at posting.

Wars rarely end as they begin. Five days in, it is foolish to predict what will happen in Ukraine. Early reports are that Ukraine is holding the Russians back suprisingly well.

This seems significant, however, because the earliest stages of a war favour the aggressor. Think of the Schlieffen Plan. Think of Hitler’s blitzkriegs. Think of Japan’s rapid expansion after Pearl Harbour. The aggressor has the advantage of surprise, and would not attack unless he thought he had the upper hand. Yet so far, this is the best he can do. Ukrainian defense should only get stiffer as time goes on.

Some have said that Putin sent in the B team, and better troops are likely to follow.

But this makes no sense. Russia is not engaged elsewhere. Given that their best opportunity is at the outset, it would be strategically insane not to use your best troops as the initial spearhead.

Putin is also on borrowed time. His regime is not popular at home. Those who rule by fear and strength are quickly vulnerable if they show weakness. Ask the Greek junta, which fell when they unsuccessfully tried to annex Cyprus. Ask the Argentine Junta, which collapsed when they tried to invade the Falklands. Any prolonged war in Ukraine is risky to Putin at home.

Last night, I saw three retired US Generals give the opinion that Putin was now going to fail to take Ukraine.

The third thought that NATO was going to be drawn in.

If Ukraine holds out, pressure is going to increase on the West to come more aggressively to their aid. They cannot afford the blowback among their own people, or in world opinion, if they just stand by and watch while a gallant Ukraine is slowly and bloodily beaten down. And they cannot pass up the strategic opportunity, if Ukraine is doing the heavy lifting, and an intervention would tip the balance. Compare Spain, France, and Holland intervening in the American Revolution. 

This might mean World War III. Especially if this was prearranged with China, who will land the second blow by invading Taiwan in the spring. But it is more likely as things look now to mean the collapse of the Putin government. Scaring China off their plans for Taiwan. Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine then join NATO. Russia perhaps goes pro-West and more truly democratic. The governments of Belarus and Kazakhstan probably also soon fall, without Russian muscle to defend them against their own people.

Should all this happen, might the repercussions also be felt in China? Not just the decision not to invade Taiwan this season; Xi, and his aggressive foreign policy stance, might fall.

The smells in the winds of freedom are heady, as we saw in the Arab Spring, orin the fall of the Berlin Wall. 

Might they even be felt in Canada?