Options for NATO

 So now we have a big war.

American and NATO cannot afford to do too much. It is only too likely, if they get heavily committed in Ukraine, that China will seize the opportunity to take Taiwan. Indeed, I suspect this may be the plan, organized jointly by Russia and China.

But if NATO does too little, its reliability as an ally will be badly tarnished.

Sanctions have never worked to deter Russia before. Short of committing troops on the ground, can NATO do much else?

Perhaps something in the realm of cyberwar. I do not know how good Western capabilities are. The bad news is that Russia certainly has capabilities here too. 

Other thoughts:

1. Rush small arms to the Ukraine in huge numbers. Get guns, grenades, and ammunition in the hands of as many Ukrainians as possible. Set Russia up for a long guerilla war. Ukrainians have a history of doing this.

2. Offer immediate NATO membership to Moldova and rush in NATO troops. This will at least punish Russia for the invasion, and have symbolic value.

3. In strictly military terms, it would not be costly to blockade and even seize the Kaliningrad area of Russia, which is surrounded by NATO countries. NATO troops are already in the area. This could probably done fast enough to be a fait accompli before Russia could react. It could be held as a trade-off for Russia vacating Ukraine.

Of course, invading part of Russia risks world war. But Putin is risking world war already. We have a game of chicken here. If it is always Russia escalating, and the West de-escalating, Russia always wins.

4. Close the Dardanelles to Russian shipping. Because the strait is so narrow, it would take very little to do so. Turkey is a NATO member.

5. Close the Baltic to Russian shipping. Again, it would take little to do so from Denmark, another NATO member.

6. Close the Sea of Japan to Russian shipping. This would be harder, but there are pinch points at Pusan-Fukuoka and Hokkaido. The combined Japanese, South Korean, and US Navies might manage it while being close enough to swiftly redeploy to Taiwan if necessary.

7. Invade Syria and take out Russia’s Assad client regime. Tit for tat—they invade a Western ally, the West invades their ally. They pull out of Ukraine, the West pulls out of Syria. The West is pretty sick of Middle Eastern wars, but it would not need that much redeployment to take out Syria, from Turkey, Israel, and Iraq.

One serious complicating factor is European dependence on Russian oil. I don’t know how big a problem that would be. Maybe prohibitive.