Problems Confronting John McCain

McCain is now the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. However, his lead is far from assured. Luck needs to be with him. Here's why:

1. McCain and Rudy Giuliani compete for essentially the same base: Republican moderates concerned about national security. So far, Giuliani has left the field more or less to McCain. From Florida on, he may split it. McCain’ potential vote is roughly split in half.

2. This base is not a majority in the Republican Party. McCain consistently tops out at about a third of Republican voters. So far, this has been enough—because the more conservative wing of the party has split three ways. If any of those three drops out or fades away dramatically, the equation changes. His rivals’ potential vote grows by 50%--and matches McCain’s plus Giuliani’s.

3. McCain runs well as the underdog. His style does not seem to work so well with a cautious frontrunner strategy. He is now the frontrunner.