New Hampshire Predictions

My last-minute predictions for New Hamsphire: big win for Obama on the Democrat side; a win for McCain on the Republican side.

Obama will win because the logic of the public drama requires a Clinton meltdown.

McCain will win because the rumoured late surge for Romney is improbable--it usually takes about two weeks for what is being said in the press to show up in the polls, and this would be a turnaround in 24 hours. The expected huge Obama win will convince many independents to vote in the Republican primary, where they can make a difference, and McCain's strength is among independents.

Now let's see whether I'm right...