McCain is It

It’s all over but the hollering in the Republican race now. The fat lady is clearing her throat. The balloons are falling from the ceiling nets. With the Florida win, and Giuliani dropping out to endorse him, McCain will take it, barring some spectacular gaffe or scandal breaking—within the next week. The Republicans will now, on past form, close ranks quickly behind him.

There is some kind of magic at McCain’s back. Not just his miraculous revival, and how events in Iraq proved him right at just the right time. He also won in New Hampshire, improbably, among voters who wanted the US out of Iraq, and in Florida among voters who ranked the economy as top issue—playing to Romney’s strong suit. Talk about crossover appeal; we might have another “Teflon presidency” here. McCain is hard to hate. He has the fewest negatives of any major candidate.

So we may really see that perfect Republican scenario: a unified Republican party against a Democratic party torn apart by a fierce, race-tainted battle between Clinton and Obama. The black vote in Florida again went solidly to Obama. Worse, it looks possible that the choice for the Democrats might even hinge on whether disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated at the convention. Floor fight!

Meantime, the speculation on a Republican VP choice begins. It is well, too, that there is much time to contemplate this; because the VP choice is more important than usual for McCain. His age makes it important—he runs a higher than usual risk of dying or becoming incapacitated in office. His “maverick” status also makes it important. He needs a partner who can reassure the party’s base. And the economy looks likely to be the big issue. McCain’s expertise is in foreign affairs; he needs someone to balance him here too.

What we need is a youngish conservative Southern evangelical with strong economic credentials, ideally a governor, who is popular in his home state.

The name “Jeb Bush” comes to mind. Unfortunately, the last name might be a hindrance.