Iowa Results

So how’d my Iowa caucuses predictions do? I was right on Huckabee winning, right on Romney placing, for the Republicans. Thompson seems to have edged out my choice, McCain, for third. I did less well on Democrats: I was right that Clinton would come third, but had first and second places reversed.

Now how did I do compared to the professionals? Awarding three points for each correct first-place finish, two for a correct second-place, three for a correct third, my overall score is 6. A different system: three points for getting a win, place, or show correct, one for being within one place of the correct finish: 12. 6/12.

Compare Terry Eastland at the National Standard: he called Barack to win, but Clinton to come second. Like me, he expected McCain to take third. His scores on the same basis: 8/10.

Richelieu, of the National Standard: 11/16.

Stephen Hayes: 3/8.

Jim Geraghtey, National Review: 12/18—a perfect call!

Neil Newhouse, Public Opinion Strategies: 1/8.

Will Robinson, New Media: 1/5.

Marc Elias, Perkins Coie: 8/12.

Let’s add the two figures to get a composite:

Od: 18
Eastland: 18
Richelieu: 27
Hayes: 11
Geraghtey: 30
Newhouse: 9
Robinson: 6
Elias: 20
Average: 17.37.

So at least I beat the average for “experts.” And I did hedge my bet by saying that a clear lead for Obama over Edwards on the first ballot would lead to a major move to Obama instead of to Edwards.

Anyway, the big media spin coming out of this looks to be Obama. Fair enough, I think. It looks as though he drew huge numbers of new caucus-goers. This makes him the new favorite to take the Democrats’ nomination. He’s likely now to take New Hampshire on the bounce, and build up nice momentum for the big primaries to come.

The second-biggest story I hear and read is the failure of Romney among the Republicans. Odd, the difference in emphasis—the focus on the winner for the Democrats, the loser for the Republicans. Because, actually, Huckabee got a better spread than Obama, and the loss was worse for Clinton than for Romney.

But the media do not like either Huckabee or Romney. They like Obama a lot, and generally like Hillary Clinton.

They also like McCain, and have been trying to spin his fourth-place finish as a win. I too may have gotten fooled by this media hype, and overestimated his chances in Iowa as a result. I don't think his finish in Iowa helps or hurts him.

The main thing this result does, I think, is to keep everyone still in the race—everyone who seemed to have a chance going in, that is. It could have finished Edwards, or Thompson, or Huckabee, or Obama, but didn’t. However badly Romney or Clinton did, they both have the money to keep going.