So She Wasn't Made of Brown Sugar after All

Okay, I got it wrong. So sue me; big deal; so did everyone else. Clinton’s back; the Comeback Queen. I think just possibly this primary result, on the Democratic side, was based on the general calculation that Obama had it won. Assuming so, perhaps, a lot fewer young folks bothered to turn out here than in Iowa—his strongest constituency. A lot of independents who might have voted Democrat and Obama may have switched to the supposedly closer Republican contest to help McCain, perceived as being in more trouble. And a lot of people too may have been moved by Clinton’s recent shows of emotions—not to embrace her candidacy, possibly, so much as to feel that, heck, the Clintons at least deserved better than to end by being embarrassed—since Obama has it won anyway, let’s lend her our vote to show her some sympathy, to preserve her dignity.

A man who sheds tears or shows emotion—as Muskie did in 1968—is probably doomed. But it does not follow that the same is true for women. I think many, men and women, are conditioned to respond generously to a women seemingly overcome by emotion. We want to reach out. It may not be fair, but it is the way the world is.

If I’m right, Hillary Clinton’s comeback may be short-lived. That calculation will never happen again. It depended on the confidence that she would lose.

It is pure instinct, but I think people really are eager for change. Not a big change in policies, nor in the political direction of the country. I think most people know things are going pretty well, on the whole, for the USA. It’s more a question of change of personnel. After all, there have been Clintons or Bushes in the White House for the last 28 years. Anybody younger than 45 this year has never seen a presidential ballot without one of those two names on it. I can understand a feeling that there need to be some fresh faces—rather than at least four more years of the same. So too with the strongly partisan temper of those times—attempted impeachments, “vast right-wing conspiracies,” culture wars, and so forth. It begins to feel sterile and repetitious, especially into a new millennium.

No, to me it feels the time is right for an Obama and his message. I believe it will prevail. Huckabee’s message too works well on the same principle—a new face, a new approach, and a platform that breaks molds. McCain’s “maverick” persona also perhaps fits the temporal temper, despite his age.

Anyway, the net result of this match is the same as the net result for Iowa: nobody is knocked out. Nothing is decided. McCain will now have the money and momentum to go on—had he lost, it would have been done for him. There is no reason for Romney to drop out before Michigan—he has ties there, and is not in trouble for money. Nevada also might be good for him, with its Mormon population. Win both, and he’s back in the fight. Huckabee and Thompson are sure to want to stay in through South Carolina, which looks promising for them. Thompson can also hope to pick up significant support should Romney drop out. Giuliani has not yet begun to fight, and the split in the early primaries works in his favour.

Among the Democrats, similarly, Edwards will want to hang on to South Carolina, his home state. Clinton and Obama are, of course, both fully in contention—for now.
But if and when Richardson or Edwards does drop out, it will probably shift the calculus decisively in favour of Obama. Even if it is not there already.