Last Thoughts on Iowa

Much of the analysis of what is about to happen in the Iowa caucuses seems to miss an important factor. The voting system for the Democrats is essentially a preferential ballot. In each county meeting, candidates must poll at least 15% of the vote. If they do not, they are eliminated and a second vote is taken. Their supporters move to their second choice.

Nobody seems to notice that this dynamic, not just the straight polls, must be factored in when predicting results. And the dynamic is quite interesting. Second choices matter.

Based on this, and the current polls, shaky as they are, what is likely to happen?

On the Democratic side, a tight race—which we seem to have--almost certainly means Hillary is doomed. Because of her perceived frontrunner status, she already has almost all her likely supporters. Expect her to come in third. Edwards is most popular as a second choice—in a close race, this should put him over the top, unless Obama is well ahead of him on the first ballot.

Because nobody is factoring in the preferential aspect, this will play in the media as a surprise. Making it news, and giving Edwards (or possibly Obama) big momentum. Hillary, by contrast, will look like a loser. The wheels could come off her bandwagon.

On the Republican side, the rules are more straightforward--attendees just vote once, for their favourite.