Playing the Indian Card

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Thucydides Missed the Real Trap

Thucydides


“Thucydides’ Trap” is not real. This is the thesis that an established power will generally go to war with a rising power that is on course to overtake it. History does not bear this out.

What history does bear out is that a power or government in decline will lash out as a last resort, a roll of the dice. For what then do they have to lose? It was declining and fracturing Austria-Hungary who forced the world into the First World War. It was a once-whipped Germany that started the Second, as the Nazi economic miracle was about to collapse. It was a Ponzi scheme, and Hitler told his generals that unless they could plunder Poland, they were going to face economic ruin. Similarly, Imperial Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in desperation, cut off from oil and about to see their forces in China collapse. Juntas in Argentina and Greece risked reckless foreign invasions, of the Falklands and of Cyprus, to forestall their collapse.

Islam has been troublesome in recent decades for the same reason: it faced collapse in the face of Christian success and the spread of secularism through improved communications.

Unfortunately, we are in such a situation. Putin in Russia looks desperate. China faces grave demographic decline. They are liable to calculate that they must use whatever power they have now, bad as that gamble might be, or lose it forever.

We are at a moment of great danger.


Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Dispatches from the War Front



 Mark Carney has idiotically actually declared war against the USA, claiming Canada has been “attacked.” The sense of privilege this implies is staggering: so the US is obliged to trade with Canada, and on terms Canada finds acceptable? And every prominent federal Canadian politician, and most at the provincial level, have echoed his call for war.

Trump has in response threatened to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America.” The best part of the gag is that so many Canadians are getting irate about it. If he actually did that, who would it harm? Nor could he—it would surely still remain “Lake Ontario” to Canadians. Just a great troll, exposing Canadian idiocy.

One accusation—the actual terms of the rejected deal are being withheld from Canadians by our government, which is sinister-- is that the Americans wanted to end the requirement for bilingual packaging on all imports to Canada. This might be politically impossible for a Carney government to agree to, but it is a legitimate concern for American producers. They must repackage everything for the Canadian market. In practice, it amounts to protectionism—and forces up prices for all Canadians. It would be fairer for everyone if it were left to the consumer whether they were prepared to buy an item not labelled in French. 

Another rumour is that the Americans were demanding control over any trade deals Canada made with other countries. This has been called an unacceptable violation of Canadian sovereignty. 

But this is logically necessary for any free trade zone. The countries of the EU have had to agree to the same deal to make that free trade zone possible. Without it, Canadian firms can cheat by bringing in cheap foreign products and reselling them into the US, avoiding US tariffs by the back door.

Another accusation is that the US is demanding priority access to Canadian strategic minerals. How outrageous is that?

But they should, in their self-interest, and Canada should be eager to agree. America defends Canada; American security is Canadian security. We should be as concerned as they are that they have full and first access to our strategic minerals. Not long ago, the UK had similar priority access to Canadian strategic minerals as a matter of course. And for the same reason: they defended Canada if necessary.

Then, of course, there is dairy. The Canadian government is prepared to let the country die on that hill. But agreeing to American demands to allow in more dairy products would be of immediate benefit to the poorest Canadians. The free market is the best distribution mechanism.


Monday, August 24, 2026

No Deal Is a Bad Deal




If I am a prophet, the trade war our government has committed to with the US spells disaster for Canada.

A nation can decline quickly. In 1950, the Philippines were the richest country in Asia. Detroit was the richest city in America. Argentina was part of the First World.

Bad government can destroy. Any country is vulnerable.

Canada has had recklessly bad government since 2015.

I think Carney walked away from the trade deal his government had negotiated, because he was starting to get negative feedback. A lot of Canadians were irate at the harsh terms. The bad trade deal is largely if not entirely due to his “elbows up” tactics. 

Carney saw the Canadian public were going to blame him, notably in Quebec, and he was unlikely as a result to stay in office.

Walking away and having no deal is worse for Canada, but better for Carney. Now he can blame Trump instead of taking the blame, and stir up anti-Americanism.

Like Castro, or Maduro, or the mullahs in Iran. This never bodes well for the general public. 

God help Canada.


Monday, August 10, 2026

Alberta Should Separate

 


No consent!

Were I an Albertan, I would definitely vote for separation. If they do vote for it I will move to Alberta in hopes of getting citizenship.

The rest of Canada has this contemptible attitude: they think of Alberta as a colony, and a colony of inferiors. Meanwhile, Alberta’s oil wealth is subsidizing the rest of the country through federally mandated “transfer payments.” And at the same time, the feds are even doing what they can to hobble the Alberta energy sector, the very hand that feeds them. It is as if the prime objective is to show contempt towards Alberta. Uppity peasants.

But woe unto the rest of Canada if Alberta does pull out. We will be much worse off without its oil and the money and leverage with the US it brings. I would expect Saskatchewan and Quebec to follow—Saskatchewan because it faces the same issues, and Quebec because it stays in largely for access to Alberta money. With these three gone, it is hard to see an isolated BC or isolated Atlantic provinces staying around. BC needs its hinterland. Atlantic Canada needs its markets and someone to provide financial support. With Alberta gone, that would probably mean the US.

I keep hearing that polls only show 20-30% support for independence in Alberta, though. So probably not going to happen.

If it happens, I’m hoping that the USA will flex its muscle and intervene if the Canadian federal government threatens violence.

The quoted disgruntled Albertan is wrong on one point. He insists that there is no such thing as race, and the only issue is culture. We want to believe this is true, and we are obliged to say it is true or be called racist, but it is not  true. IQ testing shows there is a significant difference in IQ between Africans and Europeans, much less between Asians and Europeans. IQ testing is pretty reliable. 

It makes no sense to imagine skin colour is the only difference. Of course it isn’t. Africans, Europeans, and Asians have mostly developed in isolation from one another, under different environmental and social conditions. It just makes biological sense that, like Darwin’s finches, like  the different dog breeds, like the famous moths of Northern England industrial towns, they would have evolved different abilities and temperaments in order to succeed and breed. Race is not a social construct.

We deny this because of a fatal atheist misunderstanding of the doctrine that “All men are created equal.” This does not mean equal in their abilities or their appearance or their character. This means equal in their moral worth in the eyes of God.

The quoted Albertan is also wrong to complain that heretofore, integration has been considered “completely optional” by the Canadian government.  It has been actively discouraged, with government-funded “multiculturalism” actively suppressing any shared culture. Integration is “white supremacy,” after all. It is colonialism. And for whites mutual assimilation is “cultural appropriation.” “Multiculturalism” is actually enshrined in the Canadian constitution: “This Charter shall be interpreted in a manner consistent with the preservation and enhancement of the multicultural heritage of Canadians.” And the Canadian constitution is harder to amend than the US constitution—probably for all practical purposes impossible to amend.

Given this, the breakup of Canada, or revolution, or a US takeover, actually seem like the only viable ways to prevent a downward spiral into Third World status. As has happened, after all, often enough to other nations in the past.



Thursday, August 06, 2026

A Continentalist Manifesto




I have recently been teaching my students W.P. Kinsella’s Shoeless Joe. The novel reads like a long love letter to American culture, ideal for foreign students hoping to enter university in the US. 

But it is written by a Canadian.

At the same time, I see a reference to The Band as the originators back in the 1970s of a new musical genre, “Americana.” Their albums are a celebration of everything American: “Up on Cripple Creek.” “The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down.”

Yet four of the five, including their two chief songwriters, are from London, Ontario.

It is not just The Band or W.P. Kinsella, either. Neil Young, from Toronto via Winnipeg, is also deep Americana. Leonard Cohen has a love affair with American country music. The most hyper-patriotic American Youtubers and political commentators seem to be Canadian refugees: Gad Saad, Steven Crowder, Mark Steyn, Gavin MacInnis, David Freiberg (“Viva Frei”), David Frum, “Clyde Do Something,” Jordan Peterson. Joe Schuster created Superman, who fights for “truth, justice, and the American way.” Schuster was Canadian.

Which leads me to the obvious conclusion: within every Canadian, there is an American screaming to get out.

Most Canadians, to be sure, define their Canadianness by not being American. But that makes the point. It is a textbook case of denial. The only thing that makes us not American is the mere assertion that we are not. By any objective measure, we are the same people, the same culture, the same nation, founded on the same principles: the same language, leaving aside French Canada; a shared geography, a shared home; a shared history; a shared legal system, the English common law; a shared form of government, liberal representative democracy and federalism; a shared patrimony in the UK; exposure to virtually all the same influences in our childhoods, Dr. Seuss and Disney, Sesame Street and Pixar; a shared religion, Christianity, with more or less the same mix of Protestant denominations and Catholicism. We play and have always played the same sports, often across our shared border: baseball, basketball, football, hockey, lacrosse. All have deep roots in both countries--sports often unfamiliar in the rest of the world. Even our standard accents, let alone our language, are indistinguishable to outsiders and usually to ourselves. It is rare to find a Canadian, if not a recent immigrant, without known relatives in the US.

For Canadians, therefore, to criticize America or American culture amounts to self-hate. It is a poison that enfeebles us. Without our Americanness, we have no culture; for we are Americans.

For those brave few who embrace our Americanness, like Kinsella or The Bend, it is visibly exciting, dizzying. You can witness the enthusiasm. It is at last meeting our true selves, discovering our heritage, spreading our wings, and breathing free.

The best thing for Canadians is probably joining the US. Even without the economic benefits—we pay a premium in higher prices and lost opportunities by keeping our independence. Even without the security benefits—with the rise of China, it is reckless not to join forces. And Canada is too vast and underpopulated to defend itself.

For political reasons, the US would not want a full union. That would skew their electoral map leftward; Republicans would never agree.

Kevin O’Leary has the solution. Keep our pretty passports. Canadians do not vote in the US, and the Americans do not vote here. So the Americans can keep their electoral balance, and we can keep our Medicare. But full freedom of movement over the border, like going state to state or province to province. No tariffs, and the right to live and work in either country. Our militaries should be fully integrated, and so should tariffs on anything coming from abroad. We should have the same currency. 

We would be richer, our quality of life would be better, and we would be happier.