May Day! May Day!

The goat

Everybody is blaming Theresa May for the bollix of Brexit. Not fair.

It is indeed a mess. Parliament has voted not to leave without a deal, and has rejected the only deal on offer. They have already voted to leave, and will automatically in seven days. The speaker has ruled that no new vote on the deal can be held. It looks like an insane situation in which all possible options are off the table.

But it seems to me it is not May’s mess. She is being scapegoated. Besides the injustice, this is a needless distraction from the matter at hand.

The logic of the situation seems inevitable. It was never under May’s control. It takes two to tango, and what she can get is simply what the EU will offer. It is intrinsically not in the EU’s interest to offer a deal better than crashing out.

Why would it be? When has a federation ever offered anyone perks for leaving? Did the USA do any special favours for the Confederates when the Southern states wanted to leave that union? Did they get a gold watch? Did the UK give either the US or Ireland an easy and a favourable separation?

Frankileon, Flickr.

Had the EU remained as it started, a trade deal, strictly business, it might be different. But now too much is at stake. The EU ideal is at stake; the ever closer union.

The only bargaining chip the UK has or ever held was the alternative of going with no deal. It seems to follow that that’s the best deal they can ever get.

Once they’re out, things should be different. Then, perhaps after a decent interval, it becomes in the EU’s interest to seek accommodation again.

Cashing Out and Crashing Out

On Brexit, I don’t think Theresa May bears any blame. Underneath the posturing, there is a simple reality. The EU does not want to make it easy for any member to leave; what higher government ever does? How sanguine was the US when the Confederate States wanted to leave? The UK, when America did? Not only does it involve an immediate reduction of power for the folks negotiating the exit on the European side, but an easy exit will encourage others to leave. No federation can survive if it makes it easy.

By this logic, it is probably inevitable that any deal on offer from the EU is going to be worse for Britain than simply “crashing out.” They have no incentive to make it easier.

And so crashing out seems to be the best option.

Once the UK is out, it makes more sense for the EU to play nice. The deed is done, the bluff failed. Now the economics make it in the EU’s interest to conclude a trade deal. If they do not find some accommodations in good time, there will especially be troubles for Ireland. In the meantime, Britain can be making trade deals with the US, the rest of the Anglosphere, India. She is a big economy. She is a desirable date. There will be other suitors.

UK Election Results

My recent election prediction record remains unblemished: wrong again.

I predicted Tory majority.

We have a Tory minority.

I suspect this may be on the whole a good outcome.

Theresa May deserved a solid rebuke, for the cynical election call, for the awful platform and the awful campaign, refusing to debate. And she bore some responsibility as past Home Secretary for the recent terror attacks. Nor did she have any good ideas for stopping them, other than the troubling idea of pulling some civil rights.

On the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn, although a fun figure to vote for to pole the establishment in the eye, really did not look like someone you might want in charge of things.

With these results, May stands rebuked, and will probably have to resign. She should be forced to by her caucus. Yet there is really no risk of Labour coming to power. The Tories have fallen eight seats shy of a majority. The DUP, a natural fit, holds ten. At the same time, the LDP and Sinn Fein have both said there is no way they would form a coalition with Labour.

So the Tories form the next government, but probably soon under someone other than May. The obvious alternative being Boris Johnson, who would be a lot of fun to watch, and might attract a Trump-like, Corbyn-like, stick it in their eye vote. While still actually being a plausible PM.

The most striking result--and nobody seems to be talking about it--is the collapse of the Scottish Nationalist vote. Alex Salmond, former leader, actually lost his seat. And this might be fortunate for Brexit negotiations. It suggests there is no constituency for Scottish independence in the face of Brexit, which frees British negotiators' hands. The SNP actually lost, in the main, to the Conservatives, the Brexit party, suggesting the rebuke was on exactly this issue.

Last Minute UK Election Prediction

Breaking: UK election results, 1837. Lord Melbourne triumphs!

Theresa May majority.

It seems to me ISIS has come in heavily on her side. The two recent terrorist attacks ought to stay the hand of many who might have voted for Corbyn. The polls do not yet show this, but there is often a bit of a delay as it sinks in.

All that said, here is my recent record as a political prognosticator:

I picked Bernier to win the Canadian Conservative leadership.

I picked Clinton to beat Trump.

I thought there was not way Trump would take the Republican nomination in the first place.

I picked Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.

I picked Stephen Harper to win the last Canadian federal election.

So I guess you can put your money down on Corbyn now.