Cashing Out and Crashing Out

On Brexit, I don’t think Theresa May bears any blame. Underneath the posturing, there is a simple reality. The EU does not want to make it easy for any member to leave; what higher government ever does? How sanguine was the US when the Confederate States wanted to leave? The UK, when America did? Not only does it involve an immediate reduction of power for the folks negotiating the exit on the European side, but an easy exit will encourage others to leave. No federation can survive if it makes it easy.

By this logic, it is probably inevitable that any deal on offer from the EU is going to be worse for Britain than simply “crashing out.” They have no incentive to make it easier.

And so crashing out seems to be the best option.

Once the UK is out, it makes more sense for the EU to play nice. The deed is done, the bluff failed. Now the economics make it in the EU’s interest to conclude a trade deal. If they do not find some accommodations in good time, there will especially be troubles for Ireland. In the meantime, Britain can be making trade deals with the US, the rest of the Anglosphere, India. She is a big economy. She is a desirable date. There will be other suitors.