Playing the Indian Card

Friday, June 09, 2017

UK Election Results

My recent election prediction record remains unblemished: wrong again.

I predicted Tory majority.

We have a Tory minority.

I suspect this may be on the whole a good outcome.

Theresa May deserved a solid rebuke, for the cynical election call, for the awful platform and the awful campaign, refusing to debate. And she bore some responsibility as past Home Secretary for the recent terror attacks. Nor did she have any good ideas for stopping them, other than the troubling idea of pulling some civil rights.

On the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn, although a fun figure to vote for to pole the establishment in the eye, really did not look like someone you might want in charge of things.

With these results, May stands rebuked, and will probably have to resign. She should be forced to by her caucus. Yet there is really no risk of Labour coming to power. The Tories have fallen eight seats shy of a majority. The DUP, a natural fit, holds ten. At the same time, the LDP and Sinn Fein have both said there is no way they would form a coalition with Labour.

So the Tories form the next government, but probably soon under someone other than May. The obvious alternative being Boris Johnson, who would be a lot of fun to watch, and might attract a Trump-like, Corbyn-like, stick it in their eye vote. While still actually being a plausible PM.

The most striking result--and nobody seems to be talking about it--is the collapse of the Scottish Nationalist vote. Alex Salmond, former leader, actually lost his seat. And this might be fortunate for Brexit negotiations. It suggests there is no constituency for Scottish independence in the face of Brexit, which frees British negotiators' hands. The SNP actually lost, in the main, to the Conservatives, the Brexit party, suggesting the rebuke was on exactly this issue.

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