May Day! May Day!

The goat

Everybody is blaming Theresa May for the bollix of Brexit. Not fair.

It is indeed a mess. Parliament has voted not to leave without a deal, and has rejected the only deal on offer. They have already voted to leave, and will automatically in seven days. The speaker has ruled that no new vote on the deal can be held. It looks like an insane situation in which all possible options are off the table.

But it seems to me it is not May’s mess. She is being scapegoated. Besides the injustice, this is a needless distraction from the matter at hand.

The logic of the situation seems inevitable. It was never under May’s control. It takes two to tango, and what she can get is simply what the EU will offer. It is intrinsically not in the EU’s interest to offer a deal better than crashing out.

Why would it be? When has a federation ever offered anyone perks for leaving? Did the USA do any special favours for the Confederates when the Southern states wanted to leave that union? Did they get a gold watch? Did the UK give either the US or Ireland an easy and a favourable separation?

Frankileon, Flickr.

Had the EU remained as it started, a trade deal, strictly business, it might be different. But now too much is at stake. The EU ideal is at stake; the ever closer union.

The only bargaining chip the UK has or ever held was the alternative of going with no deal. It seems to follow that that’s the best deal they can ever get.

Once they’re out, things should be different. Then, perhaps after a decent interval, it becomes in the EU’s interest to seek accommodation again.