Endgame

Jody Wilson-Raybould

I think Justin Trudeau is burnt toast, thanks to the recent testimony by Jody Wilson-Raybould.

Watergate has become the gold standard for scandals. New ones are often claimed to be worse as a question of rhetoric. But I think this one really is. Nixon was called out by an anonymous functionary, Deep Throat. Later by another relatively low staffer, John Dean. Trudeau is being called out publicly by his former Attorney-General.

Watergate was disturbing as a subversion of the democratic process; but realistically, it did not matter. It was mostly so only in principle. Nixon was going to win that election regardless. The SNC-Lavalin scandal is more consequential--a subversion of the judicial process with real material results.

Perhaps Nixon fell largely because of the ick factor of his swearing mightily on tape. Okay. Buying prostitutes for Muammar Ghaddafi’s son is ickier.

It does not help that the testimony against Trudeau comes from an aboriginal woman. Conservatives are no doubt prepared to believe the worst of him anyway. But he has planted his pennant on the backs of aboriginals and women. His own supporters are now going to be inclined to take her side over his. And if he fights back, he alienates them. She beats him twice in the intersectionality sweeps.

Worse, as witnessed in the Covington caper, there is a deep-seated popular prejudice that aboriginals cannot lie. So if it is her word against his, she is going to be believed, not him. Even if she and her story were not already more credible.

For the record, although exceptional aboriginal honesty is a European myth, courage is a very real value in aboriginal culture, and one that has survived. This Wilson-Raybould has shown. Once she had made up her mind, she was not going to be frightened or intimidated. Trudeau and his aides showed their lack of cultural understanding in supposing this tactic would work.

Historically, it is almost always a scandal that gets Canadian governments voted out of office. And this is probably the biggest one since the Canadian Pacific scandal that took down the first Macdonald ministry.

In the most recent questioning in the Commons, the Conservatives give a convincing impression of being legitimately outraged. Trudeau gives the impression of stonewalling with stock, irrelevant answers. The aura of insincerity is genuinely Nixonian,.

This has also been referred to as a constitutional crisis. It is not. The Westminster system is designed to handle this sort of thing. The Liberal caucus could simply refuse to back Trudeau at their next meeting. If he then insists on staying on rather than resigning, a gross violation of precedent, someone just introduces a motion of no confidence in the Commons. He could be gone in an afternoon.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, there does not seem to be a strong rival within caucus around which opposition could coalesce, as there often has been in the past. There are reasonable compromise candidates, like Marc Garneau and Ralph Goodale, but nobody with the apparent temperament nor the committed personal following to lead an insurrection. Except perhaps for Jody Wilson-Raybould. But asking the Liberals to rally around her seems like too much.

They may in about a year from now. Even if Trudeau is not abandoned by his party, the next election is near. He will probably simply lose soon enough. Even if some supporters cannot stomach the Conservatives for ideological reasons, he cannot hold them; they can always go to the NDP.

It will probably take a while for matters to sink in. But I see a dead man walking.