See No Evil

 

Reports are that Vladimir Putin does not use the Internet. He relies entirely on printed reports.

An autocratic ruler, over time, is no longer told the truth by his advisers. He is in an information cocoon. It is safer to tell him what he wants to hear; and to assure him they have everything under control. 

This can lead to disastrous decisions.

With the rise of social media, a smart dictator has another option. They can monitor cyberspace for independent accounts of affairs on the ground. 

Putin, sources claim, has deliberately cut himself off from this. Why?

Anyone who has taken to themselves autocratic power is a narcissist. No non-narcissist would be so interested as to think this worthwhile.

Narcissists do not want to accept the existence of any external reality which they cannot control. 

They are therefore automatically delusional, and will demand that those around them support their delusions. 

They do not want the facts.

With luck, and some natural caution, they may still die in their beds, like Mao or Stalin. But collapse can also come suddenly, as with Saddam; or less suddenly, but as surely, as with Hitler.

The best way to tempt the latter fate is to start a war.

We are perhaps beginning to see how this war will end. A band of Russian partisans has invaded Russia from Ukraine. This is probably really a Ukrainian operation, just to draw reinforcements away from the site of the coming Ukrainian offensive. But it is also impressive how quickly and easily they made progress. It may be instructive to others: disaffected Chechens, the Wagner group, other independent armies Putin has unwisely allowed to organize.

Russian troops might u-turn from Kyiv or Bakhmut, and take the road to Moscow.