Watching Russia Go Down?

 

An interesting piece by Francis Fukuyama on what is going on in Ukraine.

He thinks Russia is going to lose, and dramatically. He says “collapse.” He also thinks Putin has no off-ramp. He thinks Putin will not survive in power. He expects this to herald a “new birth of freedom.”

Unfortunately, Fukuyama has a track record of being over-optimistic.

He thinks the US decision not to send in the MIGS is right. Aside from any risk of escalation, they are not needed, and Putin’s defeat could then be blamed on NATO. It looks worse for Putin if he is beaten by Ukraine seemingly acting alone.

Fukuyama also thinks this war is discrediting populist movements in the West, because they have been sympathetic to Putin. Perhaps so, but I think he is off base here. I see populist figures insisting we in the West stay out of the war, but not because they support Putin. Because they oppose foreign entanglements generally, and distrust the reports they are getting from the legacy media and the various governments as probably propaganda. This goes for Ukraine, and the US, but equally for Russia.

We shall see.