Is Peace Near?

 

There are hopeful signs that peace might be possible in Ukraine. Russia says it will stop its invasion immediately if Ukraine agrees to four conditions:

1. Ukraine ceases fire

2. Ukraine recognizes that Crimea is part of Russia

3. Ukraine recognizes the independence of the two Donbas mini-states.

4. Ukraine changes its constitution to declare permanent neutrality.

The first condition goes without saying. The second and third are no great concessions, as they simply recognize facts on the ground. Crimea and the Donbas are primarily Russian-speaking, too. There is a good chance that, were a neutral referendum held, they would vote for this result.

A compromise might be to hold internationally supervised referenda in each of these regions. 

The fourth condition is trickier; but parties to negotiations rarely open with their final position. At present, joining NATO is actually in the preamble of the Ukrainian constitution. Might it be enough if this were removed?

We may have an off-ramp here. Sure beats starting World War III.