The Molotov-Ribbentrop--Er, Sorry, the Singh Trudeau--Pact

 

I was taken by surprise by the formal parliamentary alliance between the Liberals and the NDP. This sort of thing does not generally happen so long after an election. My first thought is that it looked like circling the wagons.

It seemed to make no sense particularly for the NDP. Minority partners almost always get crushed at the next election, because now they are unable to distinguish themselves from the larger alternative. So why vote for a sure loser?

Worse, the Liberals will have been in power for three cycles. By the nature of things, next election, Canadians will be tired of them and want a change. Not a great time to identify yourself with them: to lash yourself to a dying animal.

Andrew Coyne seems to have it figured out.

While up in the polls, the NDP is busted, financially. Maybe their traditional sources of revenue are drying up; maybe they’ve been overspending. But they cannot afford to fight an election in the near future. 

As a result, with the other parties mad as hell and hot for a fight, they are stuck supporting the Liberals anyway, to avoid a snap election. They recently had to support the imposition of the Emergency Act, a reversal of their historic position and an attack on their own traditional working class base. It is humiliating and makes them look sycophantic anyway.

The current agreement saves them from that happening repeatedly; if they have to support the Liberals, now they can claim to be getting something for it.

The Liberals for their part are down in the polls, probably realize they will go down further, and the other opposition parties are eager to vote them out. Probably their own caucus is restless. This gives Trudeau some protection against suddenly being thrown to the wolves. 

It is entirely likely, and probably in the NDP’s interest, that they break the pact before its natural expiry. That way, they can put some distance between themselves and an unpopular government in time for an election. The delicate dance for the Liberals is to do just exactly what the pact requires, so as not to give Singh any legitimate-sounding reason for going back on it.

The surest sign this was all done cynically, expecting to double-cross, is the way the two leaders, and especially Singh, keep stressing how the pact requires trust.

But this will be tricky; as soon as the NDP pulls out, an election will probably be forced. And the NDP is likely to get slaughtered along with the Liberals. This will be a change election, and most likely this leaves the Conservatives in majority territory.