World War III Update

There is no question in my mind that Trump made a mistake in suggesting the US might, if provoked, bomb Iranian cultural sites. I assume he was bluffing, but even so, it sends the message that his fight is with Iran and Iranian culture, rather than with the present government. This is not true; the average Iranian, by all reports I have heard from those who have visited Iran, is likely to be on Trump’s side at this point. But threatening to destroy elements of their culture threatens that, and strengthens the current regime.

And it would be militarily and strategically senseless to bomb cultural sites. All loss, no gain. If Iran wants to provoke the US further, there are truly valuable targets easily available. This is why I expect the Iranian response to be muted. They have to do something, or lose face. But they dare not escalate.

They have fired a few mortar rounds and a few missiles. But it actually looks as though they were fired to just miss their targets. No casualties. And the Iranian cyber squad has apparently hacked into—the US federal library system. That's got to hurt. There's a comedy skit in that.

Its mountainous terrain makes Iran hard to invade on the ground. But its geography also makes vulnerable. It has little access to the sea, to export the oil on which its economy depends. Trump could level the few exposed port facilities easily. No need even to thread through layers of air defense. He could also easily blockade at the Strait of Hormuz.

And he could exploit any provocation to try to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities. This, after all, was plan A before Obama sought conciliation: either the US or Israel was going to try to bomb them.