The New Anglosphere: A Prediction

Brexit is going to be awkward for Ireland.

We’ve fussed about a hard border with Northern Ireland, but I’m not sure we have yet realized the real implications. For reasons of geography and shared history and culture, Irish foreign trade is naturally overwhelmingly with the UK; the UK out of the union, and Ireland in, does not work for the Irish economy.

The obvious solution is not keeping Northern Ireland within the European customs union, but taking Ireland out.

But it is also intolerable to Ireland to be thus dominated by England alone. Belonging to the bigger club was important in that regard.

This, it seems to me, is one more argument for a big new customs union of the English-speaking democracies. A union that included the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand along with the UK and Ireland would protect the latter from British domination; and seems natural since so much of the populations of the other members are ethnically Irish. Form a union including Australia, the US, and Canada, and it seems strange for Ireland not to be a part. They are part of the same ethnic family, with much shared history.

Such a union would also benefit the UK by reducing the risks of Scottish independence disrupting the economy. Scotland could, if it chose, become independent of the UK, while still remaining in the larger union, and the economic effects would be minimal. And Scotland will feel, like Ireland, less concerned with English domination within a larger union. Reducing any temptation to split in order to remain in the EU. As with Ireland, Scottish trade is inevitably overwhelmingly with England in any case, not with continental Europe.

The logic of it all is strong enough that I think it is likely to happen. It is all very much in the UK’s interest, and Ireland’s interest, in compensation for the loss of easy access to European markets. It is in Ireland’s and Scotland’s interest to counterbalance domination by England. It is in Canada’s interest, to counterbalance domination by the US. It is in New Zealand’s interest, to counterbalance domination by Australia. If it included a military union, it would be in Australia’s interest for security against an increasingly expansionist China.

And it seems to me it is also in America’s interest, in expanding their sphere of influence. They will naturally dominate the union. And they too might want the increased military and economic power to counter an expansionist China.

An additional attraction for Canadians would be the ability for snowbirds to migrate south more easily. For the same reason, the union might welcome in Malta or Greek Cyprus, both of whom have historic ties. This would preserve a similar snowbird option for Brits, with their loss of easy access to Spain, and benefit these economies.

I predict the idea is likely to pick up steam soon, as the realities of Britain’s exit from the EU become clear.