Unrest in Iran

Image from Iran's "Green Revolution," 2009.

I think it was Craine Brinton who proposed, through his historical analysis, that revolutions do not happen because a government is seen as evil. They happen when a government is seen as incompetent.

Their recent tangle with Trump may have revealed the Iranian government to their own people as incompetent.

The Iranians, being Middle Eastern Muslims, probably understood better than Western journalists the significance of Iran’s firing their missiles into the Iraqi dirt in response to America’s assassination of Soleimani. It was an admission of powerlessness. As I have noted previously, Islam is predisposed to assume that strength shows God’s sanction.

More critical was the downing of the Ukrainian airliner. Canadian reports stress how many Canadians were on board. But these were surely dual citizens, returning from a visit with relatives in Iran. The Iranian government shot down an airliner full of Iranians. One can understand why they were reluctant to admit it.

It is of course absurd to suggest that they did it on purpose. But it suggests panic and incompetence. It suggests a government not fit to govern.

The Iranian Islamic Republic was already subject to mass unrest. This could trigger their downfall.