Solving the Insoluble Problems of the Day

A problem solver

The world seems faced right now with several insoluble problems.

I do not believe in complaining about insoluble problems. So instead, I propose to offer solutions.

The first problem is fairly local: Canada is in alarming shape. While France, the UK, the US, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and the like seem to have insurgent movements poised to take power and perhaps pull them out of their current death spiral, Canada does not. The Liberal party remains in power, after a dozen years, and worse, remains strong in the polls. Pierre Poilievre is not that distinct an alternative, and is not getting traction in any case. Although he is a brilliant rhetorician,  he does not evoke in the electorate a feeling of confidence in his competence or his ability to turn things around. 

Who else is there on the radar who might be our Trump, LePen, or Farage? Maxime Bernier is the man who has claimed that mantle, and he has good credentials, but he lacks the necessary charisma. 

The other guy who comes to mind is Kevin O’Leary. Full of charisma, likeable, and a highly successful businessman. His problem is that he does not speak French, so he is a non-starter in Quebec.

Here’s a solution: form a joint leadership of the People’s Party, Bernier and O’Leary. Who, if elected, would be joint prime ministers. 

There is Canadian precedent for this. The Green Party has had joint leaders. Quebec solidaire has had joint leaders. Canada has historically had joint premiers in Macdonald-Cartier, Baldwin-LaFontaine, and other governments of the United Provinces period.

The second insoluble problem is population. The governments of the developed world have been caught between a rock and a hard place: population collapse will make government finances unsustainable. To prevent this, governments have been opening the doors to a flood of immigrants. But this mass immigration has instead actually further taxed government services, while disrupting social harmony. And after all, can you really save Italy by replacing all the Italians and the Italian culture? What have you saved?

But just take your busy fingers off the panic button. This crisis, I think, will solve itself, if we can convince governments to stop tinkering.

Shut the doors to more immigrants. Technology will in the near future increase healthy lifespan so that people will no longer need to retire at 60 or 65. AI and robotics can replace many human hands; less population will be needed to generate the same level of wealth. The robots will pay for our retirements.

The third insoluble problem is the war in Iran. Trump needed to go in; Iran could not be allowed to get nuclear weapons. But they have turned out to be immune to Trump’s tactics. He hoped to frighten them to a deal; but they are a suicide cult, and so will not surrender no matter how bad he makes their situation. Which is, of course, the very reason they could not be allowed to get nuclear weapons. Destroying the world wouldn’t bother them.

Nor can Trump consider a land invasion. The Iranian landscape and its large population makes that too costly. 

The solution is to get weapons to the Iranian people themselves, to allow them to overthrow the regime. What is needed is a large-scale smuggling operation. 

There; problems solved.

What's Happening in China?

 

Zhang Youxia

We are living through an interesting time. Things are happening almost too quickly to follow. And it’s a three-ring circus.

Something is clearly happening in China. Reports of large military movements; the usual internet censorship seems to have sprouted holes; emergency measures are clearly in place.

It seems likely that we are in the middle of a conflict splitting the CCP, which may become a civil war or the collapse of the regime. China is historically difficult to hold together, and always capable of collapsing into chaos.

In Iran, we are waiting for another shoe to fall. Latest reports I hear are of a mob storming the ayatollah’s residence. Trump said he had the back of the protesters. He said he would strike if the regime resorted to violence. Reports now are of 30,000 dead. It seems to me Trump must strike Iran now, and must strike decisively. His credibility is on the line.

Consider now the domino effect typical of revolutionary periods. Reports are there was a shortage of noodles in Chinese markets the day after Maduro was captured in Venezuela. One dines on noodles in celebration in China, like champagne or a birthday cake. 

Now imagine the effect on the other if either the Iranian or the Chinese regime falls. 

And there are other obvious dominos. Putin is in a terrible fix in Ukraine, losing more men than were lost by Russia in Afghanistan, a conflict that arguably caused the collapse of the Soviet Union. It seems improbable that he can stay in power much longer. And he has been dependant on Chinese and Iranian support. He has already lost Assad and Syria. 

Cuba was in dire straits economically before Trump’s coup in Venezuela, and heavily dependent on Venezuelan oil and cash. Now that is gone. Without Venezuelan, Russian, or Chinese support, they are there for the taking.

I can imagine the regimes in Iran, China, Russia, and Cuba all falling over the next year or so. Hard to see North Korea and Belarus holding on. It would be a different world; like the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Trump would look brilliant, the great hero. Parties in the democratic world who espouse Trumpish policies would accordingly get another big boost. Farage in the UK, LePen in France, Poilievre in Canada, Wilders in the Netherlands, AfD in Germany, and so on. Each would probably win the next election decisively, and introduce new policies accordingly. In the Middle East, radical Islam would be dead, and there would be a strong impulse to sign on to the Abraham accords. 

Meantime, Elon Musk is predicting a great burst of increased productivity due to AI, leading to an unprecedented increase in general wealth; and he is speaking of the near term.

We could be seeing the birth pangs of a golden age.

If the Islamic Republic Falls

Iran right now is hell. To keep our hopes up, let’s try to focus on the good things that might come if the regime does fall. For it might very well fall. Trump is honour bound to do his best to bring it down. The darkest hour is just before dawn.

The fall of the Islamist regime could usher in an era of peace across the Middle East. Iran has been subsidizing insurrectionist groups like the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, and more. Without this support, they may evaporate. I think of the effect on the troubles in Northern Ireland when Libya’s Ghaddafi withdrew support. The Abraham Accords show a desire to bury that hatchet in some important quarters. 

Iran might become an ally of Israel again, as it was under the Shah— the Iranians might well be grateful for Israel’s help in overthrowing the Islamist regime. And they could flip from being a sworn enemy of the US to being a strategic regional ally—in Russia’s underbelly.

Russia will have lost a major ally and supplier of weapons for the current war in Ukraine. That might tip the balance.

The example of regime overthrow might also inspire Russians to overthrow Putin as well. Or the Chinese might try to take out Xi.

Along with Venezuela, and domestic supplies, Iran will give the US strong influence in the world oil market. They might be able to use this to exert pressure on China.

Iran might now develop into a prosperous and innovative nation. Under the Shah, they were on a par with Spain. There is a well-educated population, and history gives us many examples of nations that developed quickly after a period of turmoil; the Netherlands gaining independence from Spain, Spain of the Reconquista, Poland after the Berlin Wall fell. Postwar Germany or Japan. Iran’s expertise with drones shows a bit of what they are capable of.

Rumours are that a large proportion of Iranians are secret Christians. This seems plausible. Iran was not that devout before 1979—there was a move under the Shah to promote Zoroastrianism over Islam. The rule of the mullahs might now have broadly discredited Islam in the popular mind. It would be a glorious thing, from my Christian perspective, to see the revival this might become, once the lid is off, perhaps inspiring revivals elsewhere.

It seems likely that the fall of the Islamic Republic will largely discredit the modern ideology of political Islam and global jihad everywhere. The experiment has been tried; it failed. 

Keep on hoping.

Why the Iranian Regime Will Fall

Bullseye.

At this point, I believe Trump has no alternative but to intervene in Iran. He gave a clear warning that he would if the regime began mass killing. This has encouraged the protesters. Now the regime has called his bluff. If he does nothing, he will lose leverage in all future negotiations. The Iranian people will feel betrayed. Aside from the practical considerations, Trump and the world would know he had let the protesters down. That he had wimped out, just as he has accused Obama of doing. 

He must do something big.

But we also can assume it will not be the insertion of US troops at scale. That would be too much for Trump’s base, and Iran is not a country that would be easy to take militarily.

Reports are that the protesters have control of the port of Bandar Abbas. Were I the US, or Israel, or the Gulf States, I would be ferrying in small weapons as quickly as possible, along perhaps with agents and unidentifiable mercenary soldiers. Arm and organize the people for guerilla action, and it becomes much harder for the authorities to repress to restore control. Think Northern Ireland.

But this is probably not spectacular enough for present public relations needs. Trump’s probably going to have to do some bombing. 

He does not want to hit Iranian infrastructure—that would harm the general public. That might help the regime. 

He does not want to hit the Iranian army—they are potential allies. 

He wants to hit IRGC facilities, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Better yet—and most like Trump—I see him levelling the homes and haunts of the top leaders of Iran, in hopes of cutting off the regime’s head in a surgical fashion. I suspect he could do this without risk of American casualties by firing cruise missiles from a submarine stationed in the Gulf.

Whatever he does, at this point, his honour almost demands it be enough that the Iranian regime does fall. It cannot be seen to have been in the end ineffective, or Trump loses.

 Let’s see.

Iran Rocked

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi

I am following events in Iran. Things seem to be developing quickly. I hear that police are in some cases joining the protesters, that IRGC stations are being found abandoned, and that the security forces deployed are Arabs, not locals. These are strong indications that the regime’s grip is failing. Usually the tipping point in a revolution is when the security forces melt away or join the crowds—when the regime cannot command its enforcers.

There is also a credible shadow government in the wings, under the Crown Prince; and the crowds know it. Israeli agents are surely on the ground, helping things along. The good old International Jewish Conspiracy, you might say.

What will the world look like if the Iranian regime collapses?

It will do damage to Russia, surely. Russia is close enough to the brink itself, with its hands full in Ukraine, and it has been relying on Iran for drones, perhaps other aid. This could tip that balance. Not only that—revolutions are contagious. An Iranian collapse may give courage to Russians sick of the war and the sanctions and the repression to try the same. 

It would be another huge accomplishment for Trump, to start the new year. Pretty lucky, with the midterms coming up. And it would be a cautionary tale to other American opponents not to poke the hegemon too far. The American sanctions and the American bombings surely contributed to this event, and certainly look like they did, which may be more important.

The contemporary Axis of Evil has been Russia, China, and Iran. Now that one is knocked out, the other two look weaker and more vulnerable. If one tiger was paper, are the others as well?

And who knows where else the contagion of revolution might spread? China? Venezuela? Cuba? Belarus? Georgia? All have looked restive recently. Each domino endangers the others.

Presumably this is very good news for Isael and Middle East peace. The Iranians have been funding conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Yemen. Now that funding will be gone. The Irish Troubles ended when funding stopped flowing from Libya. So something similar might happen here.

This may also tend to discredit the ideology of political Islam. Iran was the leading example of this in practice, and it will have ignominiously failed. That fit of xenophobic reaction may have had its day. Time to wake up and join the world.

There have been rumours of secret mass conversions to Christianity within Iran, inspired by the oppression of the Islamist government, yet hidden for fear of punishments. It may be, with the lid off, that there will be a rush of public conversions to Christianity and Zoroastrianism soon.

Which will encourage Christian revival elsewhere.

Before the Islamist Revolution, Iran was an important regional power, with a GDP on a par with Spain. Newly allied with the West, it might again develop rapidly and be again a bulwark of American foreign policy in the region. And a powerful ally of Israel as well. 

I suspect post-revolution, Iranians will be as pro-Western as the various populations of the old East Bloc turned out to be after the Berlin Wall fell.

I have several Iranian friends who have been wanting this badly. I hope it happens this time for them.

Nobody Is Saying It, But ...

The current Israeli attack on Irian is showing spectacular penetration by agents of Mossad. They have been able to precisely target important military figures for assassination, for example. They are firing drones from places inside Iran.

Nobody is saying it, but it should be obvious that these “Mossad agents” are not Israeli Jews.

They have to be Iranians—and they are not doing this out of love for Israel. Israel has made a deal with the Iranian opposition. Their intent and end game is not going to be simply to get Iran to stop building nuclear weapons. The deal will involve an attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime. And no doubt the Iranian opposition has, with the help of Mossad, prepared the necessary next steps.

This is always the great weakness of an authoritarian regime. That Ayatollah fella is going down.

The name of the Israeli operation, "Rising Lion" actually already said so. The lion is the symbol of the Iranian monarchy. 

Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin

Things that seem epochal seem to be happening all at once, as I type, as though we are witnessing the hand of Providence. I may be speaking too soon, but rumours are growing of an economic collapse and a change in power in China. And to a more “pro-Western” regime.

What seems especially uncanny, and implausible, are reports of a sudden demographic collapse, of empty villages in the countryside, and of strangely empty streets in major cities. How can millions of people just disappear suddenly?

Possibly much work and purchasing has gone online, as it has, after all, in North America. Possibly an economic collapse means people do not have money to go out and spend, or work to get to. Possibly the government is harassing those who venture out, fearing any concentration of people might become an anti-government demonstration or a riot.

But counter to this last hypothesis, reports are that the extensive Chinese network of security cameras has been cut off. Surely not what they want to do if they fear unrest. A power shortage?

Whatever the case, it seems that something big is happening in China. And any thing big happening in China is big for the whole world.

Meantime, there is the apocalypse in Iran. Israel is suddenly, in lightning strikes,  wiping out much of Iran’s military capabilities and creating chaos in the regime. Rumours are that many top leaders have flown out to Russia or Pakistan. 

If true, this is what happens when a regime is about to collapse. The Iranian regime has for many years not had any popular support. The military was vital to hold the people down through fear. Now the military is in disarray, and shown to be weak. Iranians  may seize the opportunity to rise up. Iranian friends in Canada are cheering on the Israeli attacks. There is an organized opposition abroad; as there was when the Shah fell. Then, they successfully flew in to take charge and restore order. It may happen again now. Losing a war or some reckless military adventure is a common trigger for autocratic governments to fall. 

That’s two of the three strongest anti-Western regimes.

And then there is the third leg of the triple alliance, Russia.

Russia and Putin have also just gotten a big shock, with the Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russia. It was actually eerily similar to the Israeli attack on Iran, happening almost simultaneously, as though the same mastermind was behind both. If not God, perhaps the USA? 

It took out a significant part of Russia’s strategic abilities; and it brought the war to the common people back in Moscow. Not good for popular support, I imagine. 

Online commentators also say Russia, having now lost a million casualties, is finding it hard to replace lost manpower. They may be losing this war of attrition.

At first glance, this looks improbable. Surely Ukraine has a greater manpower problem, with a much smaller population. They’ve been fighting just as long. And a greater materiel problem: their economy is smaller, and their factories have been under attack far longer.

But the argument goes that, in order to gain ground, the Russians have been using human wave attacks, in a war which heavily favours the defense. The Ukrainians, by staying mostly on the defensive, have been able to take advantage of this. Perhaps the optics were bad, but it was the smart move. Let the other side run straight into the machine guns. 

As for materiel, Ukraine still has all of the EU, and beyond, to draw on.

Rumours online are that all this recent attack puts Putin on shaky ground; a palace coup seems possible. As with Iran, a failed military adventure is the most common trigger for the fall of an autocratic regime. 

Of course, this has all been said before, the imminent fall of Putin has been widely predicted, ever since the initial Russian invasion, supposed to take three days, was repulsed. He has shown great resilience. But even a cat has only nine lives. This recent mass drone attack, and the detonation under the Crimean bridge, does look like a possible tipping point. Like the Tet offensive was for the US in Vietnam—the frustration and sense of failure is that much greater once having started to feel victory was at last within view. It must be psychologically devastating.

With Israel’s attack on Iran, Putin has probably lost his main source of drones with which to respond to Ukraine. There are suddenly leaks that Russia and China no longer see one another as allies—consistent with the rumours that China is about to turn pro-Western. It makes sense; China has unresolved historical grievances and border disputes with Russia, and not with the USA or the West. 

So Putin too might soon and suddenly fall.

If any one of these three regimes goes, the other two are more vulnerable. We’re talking dominoes. And China, the biggest and most important of the three, seems to be a pretty sure thing.

What will the world look like if all three dominoes are down?

Hugely enhanced prestige for the US and the West. 

Surely lesser regimes like Cuba, Venezuela, or North Korea, who have been anti-Western, will also fall or convert. Partly for lost financial backing; partly for lost prestige; partly from spreading revolutionary fervour. 

More importantly, the anti-Western elites within the West will be relatively discredited: the multicult groups running Canada, France, the UK, Germany, Australia, and the EU broadly. Already in process, their fall may be turbocharged. The superiority of the Western way will have been emphatically illustrated.

Hugely enhanced prestige for Donald Trump. FWIW. Cue AI to carve a niche on Mount Rushmore. Maybe with an assist from Musk’s Boring Company.

This may be bad for peace in the Middle East. Hostility towards and fear of Iran has tended to drive Gulf States into cooperation with Israel and the US; this incentive will now be gone. 

However, a number of terrorist groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, will have lost their funding. The current forever wars will cease. Certainly, this should end the conflict in Gaza. Without this hot conflict between Israel and fellow Arabs, the other Arab states may feel better able to sign on to the Abraham Accords.

I see a day peace will come to the Middle East. It once seemed impossible for peace to come to Ireland, too. Then it did. 

With Putin gone, Russian matters are unpredictable. But on balance, it would seem that, with the relative loss of strategic capabilities, a more bellicose leadership would have nowhere to go from here—just carrying on just the same. So if you see a problem, why reinforce failure? The obvious possible change is to try for peace. Even to end Russia’s dreams of standing apart from and against the West. That gives you a chance to declare a kind of victory. After all, culturally, Russia is Europe. Division is artificial. Pure self-interest suggests integration. It is only a childish national pride that makes Russia want to fight and seek empire.

One happy consequence of the end of the regimes in Iran and China could be a revival of Christianity. The CCP has discredited atheism in China; the Ayatollahs have discredited Islamism in Iran. Rumours are of a large number of Christian conversions as it is; although such conversions are more or less illegal in both states. With the lid off, this may grow; this may blow. And the vitality of Christianity in these influential nations, in turn, may also hasten revival in the older Christian lands; a revival that already seems to be starting. When the Iron Curtain fell, Pope John Paul II and Polish Christianity brought a new enthusiasm to Catholicism.

And Christianity is the backbone and foundation of Western culture. Is a Renaissance about to begin?

Trump's Game in Iran

 

The US is at pains to stress that Israel’s current strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is entirely Israel’s doing, and America is not involved.

I do not believe that for a moment. Methinks they doth protest too much.

Trump has been saying for years that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Last winter he said that if the Gaza hostages were not released promptly, all hell would break loose.

Trump is a skilled negotiator. He has set this up as “good cop, bad cop,” to force Iran to the table with minimum risk or destruction. I think he intentionally spread the rumour a couple of months ago that he and Netanyahu were having a spat, simply in order to give this plausibility. The media bought it.

Now Iran may be led to appeal to US for protection from Israel. And Trump can name his terms. He has given them an escape ramp. In the meantime, other actors throughout the Muslim world have less cause or claim to attack US interests, minimizing risks. And protecting the US’s Arab and Muslim allies. All the risks are on Israel, but Israel was already entirely at risk and has nothing exposed and nothing to lose.

And Trump preserves his domestic reputation as a man of peace, the basis for much of his popular support.

It is even possible Trump is playing a similar game with Ukraine—faking his hostility to Zelensky, which really did look like something staged for the cameras, a bit from his old reality show. Thereby letting the Europeans take the lead, while feeding Ukraine the intelligence needed for them to pull off spectacular strikes recently within Russia. With official US sanction, their hands were tied, over fears of sparking a nuclear exchange and world war. But Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and strategic submarines were very much in the US interest. Trump may still be feeding technology to Ukraine through European intermediaries. 

Again, this would let him pose as an honest broker to Putin, someone Putin could turn to without losing face to make a peace. And it lets him, again, stay the pacifist for his domestic audience. The Europeans would surely be delighted to go along, because it makes them look independent and tough and consequential. Good for their ego.

Meantime, Trump’s tariffs on China seem to have caused some sort of tipping point, and the Chinese leadership is collapsing.

Imagine if Trump’s negotiating skills actually manage to achieve, in short order, the collapse of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian governments, all without American blood being spilled.

It would earn him a spot on Mount Rushmore.

Next question: was Trump’s spat with Elon Musk also faked, to protect Musk’s business interests from attacks, while also giving congresspeople, especially Democratic congresspeople, cover to support the DOGE cuts without looking subservient to Trump?

This doesn’t require imagining Trump is playing 4-D chess. It’s more like the good old American game of poker. Plus acting talent.

Who Killed Raisi?

 

I have no inside information here, but I asked an Iranian friend who is deeply involved in the democratic resistance here in Canada for his view of the death of Iran’s president and foreign minister. He says they generally think it is an assassination, and an inside job. Part of a power struggle at the top. It may be because Raisi was too obvious a candidate to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Not pro-democracy forces, not the Israelis, and not the weather.

Will the death of Raisi bring good news for the Iranian people and the pro-democracy forces? Unlikely, he thinks. 

World War III

 

World War III seems to be trending. The recent missile attack by Iran on Israel has been billed by many commentators as its beginning.

It is not. As a matter of pure logistics, Iran can’t invade Israel, and Israel can’t invade Iran. Missiles are expensive, and Israel is pretty good at making Iran waste them—little payoff for the payload. Drones may be a continuing problem; but more for Israeli civilians than for the Israeli military. 

A World War tends to require grand alliances of nations. Instead, this may increase Iran’s isolation. Iran, the Shi’ite power, is the primary strategic threat to the Sunni Arab nations of the Persian Gulf and all points West, including the wealthy and militarily powerful Saudi Arabia. Iran has been meddling in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories. It has no natural allies. The big Arab states may take the opportunity to make common cause with Israel against their common enemy.

It may also increase opposition to the regime within Iran. A lot of the recent protest has been on the premise that the government has been spending money on foreign adventures while the people at home are starving. The current strike on Israel may be a show of power by a government that feels cornered; to cow their own people more than Israel.

https://x.com/elicalebon/status/1779685190941679979

I have Iranian friends. I have American friends who have visited Iran and spoken to people there. No Iranians seem to support the current regime. They are desperate for help from abroad to overthrow it, and wondering why it is not coming.

There may be an informal alliance of convenience among Iran, Russia, and China, but they are motivated by no common ideology and no common interests. In fact, their interests conflict.

The real danger is that each local war—Ukraine, now Gaza—gives incentive for the next, as the West’s resources get stretched. Now might be the time for Venezuela to invade Guyana and get away with it; now might be the time for China to invade Taiwan and get away with it.

Poilievre on Nowruz

 

Say what you will--Pierre Poilievre knows how to give a speech.

I bet this gets him the Iranian vote.

The Matriarchy Strikes

Delacroix, "Liberty Leading the People" 

Protests are happening now in many places. The golden thread that connects us with our governments has broken. The social contract has broken. Not just in one or two countries, but in many, most, maybe all. All hell is about to break loose.

In many places, these protests seem to be led by women. In Iran, the focus of the protests is the demand to wear the hijab, which only affects women; and it is the death of a young woman in police custody. In Dagestan, and elsewhere in the Russian federation, it is mostly women protesting in the streets. There is a practical reason for this: young men protesting will be hauled off to the front lines in Ukraine. Young men are keeping out of sight. In the US, suburban moms are showing up in droves at school board meetings, alarmed at what their children are being taught. If this group swings decisively away from the Democrats, they are doomed.

In Italy, a woman has just won election as prime minister. She leads a party supposedly further to the right than any previous postwar government; a protest movement. In Canada, a woman, Tamara Lich, organized and led the Freedom Convoy in February. A woman towards the right of that party is now running the UK Conservatives.

The women in particular are rebelling. What does it mean?

In the normal course of things, women prefer security to freedom. They want peace and order. This means they are the natural allies of government and continuity. When women rebel, it is especially significant. And the men naturally defer to them.

You might protest that feminism is a radical movement, hardly in favour of the established order, and we have been living with that for ages. But feminism was never radical, never against government and never against the established order. Feminists were never wild in the streets. Instead, feminism has always demanded bigger government and more social control. It was, moreover, always a movement of the upper and middle classes; bored suburban housewives. Those already in control. And it was, from the start, enthusiastically endorsed and supported by government and the establishment. Nobody ever fired at a feminist in the street. Nobody ever even prosecuted one—at least until Johnny Depp.

It therefore says a great deal when women are genuinely out in the streets, and protesting government and the established social order. Women are the glue that holds society together. They are the natural supports of government. If they are in opposition, society as a whole has turned. Women always get to decide.

I have said before that the crisis point in any revolution is when the military is called out to disperse the crowd, and they refuse. Then government has lost control.

But there is an earlier and almost as important crisis point: when that crowd is largely women.

The army, being male, is particularly unlikely to fire on women. They are likely to join with them instead. Women rule. If the soldiers do fire on women, all hell breaks loose. If men die, even a lot of men, nobody much cares. If women die, it is intolerable to most people, men and women. Now the population will be impossible to control.

So once the crowd is mostly women, the government is doomed.

The Russian Revolution in 1917 happened when the women rioted for bread. The Imperial troops would not fire on them; the Czar fell.

In the EDSA revolution in the Philippines, in 1986, the crucial moment came when the marines were sent in tanks to break up the crowd. A line of nuns knelt in their way. They halted. The army and air force began to defect en masse.

In Argentina in 1980, the “Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo” pulled down the military junta. They could not be dispersed.

Examples could be multiplied.

When the women are in the streets, the regime is likely to fall. It has lost any regime’s essential support.

We are seeing that happen now.

Protests in Iran

 

As seen on Twitter.

More.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1572350814882267137

https://twitter.com/i/status/1572716326535462913

Silver Linings Shining Through

 

I have felt for some time, intuitively, that we are on the cusp of something this fall; that the old order is passing away. Not just fading, but about to collapse. 

I see more signs of this in the day’s news.

Things are getting hot in Iran. The trigger was the death of a young woman in police custody.

One would not normally expect such an event to lead to mass protests; a lot of young people have died suddenly and mysteriously of late. That it has shows the people of Iran were tinder waiting for a match. This might be the end of that oligarchic regime.

In response to Putin’s mobilization of, at last report, one million conscripts, there is also turmoil in the streets of Russia. There are reports of long lineups at the borders, and overbooked flights out. This might be the end of that oligarchy as well.

American generals interviewed seem to agree that this call up sounds like desperation, that it is unlikely to turn things around in Ukraine, but carries huge domestic risks.

If the people are in the streets in Russia and Iran, and especially if one of those governments goes down, it is likely in this globalized world for the protests to spread. The next likely candidate is China, where people have been growing restive and economically desperate.

In Canada, the Twitter hashtag #TrudeauMustGo is becoming a phenomenon reminiscent of the Freedom Convoy. It seems to have caught on with the public, with over half a million Canadians at last count joining in. They—we--post a short bio and demand Trudeau’s resignation for calling us misogynists, racists, and the like.

If only half a million is not enough to turn out a government, Canadians value their social peace and quiet. If the message gets out that a large body of their fellow citizens are outraged by Trudeau, and they all have friendly, human faces, the likely conclusion in the minds of the Canadian majority is that, for social peace, Trudeau must indeed go. The unrest is not the fault of some deplorable “fringe minority.” These are ordinary, honest neighbours.

One of them is even Trudeau's half-brother.

I feel that things are moving fast. The government of Canada may also be gone soon. Nanos says recent polls show the NDP sucking support from the Liberals, This gives the Dippers a motive to pull the plug on the minority government. They can increase their seat total. At the same time, a closer split between Liberals and NDP is likely to throw seats to the Conservatives.

Whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Perception and the Fall of Empires

The Frogs were living as happy as could be in a marshy swamp that just suited them; they went splashing about caring for nobody and nobody troubling with them. But some of them thought that this was not right, that they should have a king and a proper constitution, so they determined to send up a petition to Jove to give them what they wanted. 

"Mighty Jove," they cried, "send unto us a king that will rule over us and keep us in order." Jove laughed at their croaking, and threw down into the swamp a huge Log, which came down - kerplash! - into the swamp. 

The Frogs were frightened out of their lives by the commotion made in their midst, and all rushed to the bank to look at the horrible monster; but after a time, seeing that it did not move, one or two of the boldest of them ventured out towards the Log, and even dared to touch it; still it did not move.  

Then the greatest hero of the Frogs jumped upon the Log and commenced dancing up and down upon it, thereupon all the Frogs came and did the same; and for some time the Frogs went about their business every day without taking the slightest notice of their new King Log lying in their midst. But this did not suit them, so they sent another petition to Jove, and said to him, 

"We want a real king; one that will really rule over us." 

Now this made Jove angry, so he sent among them a big Stork that soon set to work gobbling them all up.

--Aesop 

Iranian protests continue.

It all makes me recall the sad fate of the Shah of Iran. His regime fell under far less difficult circumstances. Iran had been developing rapidly, was about as rich as Spain at the time, was dominant in the region, and was the fifth-largest military power in the world. The Shah was an autocrat, but a moderate one, who was generally inclined to commute death sentences and declare amnesties. His worst vice seemed to be personal extravagance.

That, and his moderation on matters of religion, which alienated the mullahs.

Governments fall not because they are evil or repressive, but because they appear incompetent.

The Shah, depressed as a result of cancer and the drugs used to treat it, had become indecisive.

Or witness Louis XVI. He lost his crown and the head that held it up not because he was repressive, but because he was bankrupt, and kept changing his mind.

Yet the worst of governments can continue, seemingly indefinitely. Witness the survival of the Kim dynasty in North Korea, despite appalling famines. Witness the ability of Assad to hang on in Syria.

Nor is it just that people fear a repressive government too much. It is not terror that holds them in thrall. That cannot explain the continuing popularity of Mao in China. Stalin in Russia too still has his supporters. These men were, objectively, as bad as Hitler. The difference is not in the extent of their crimes, but that Hitler lost his war, and they didn’t.

It has been argued that the British Empire was doomed, as much as anything, by the loss of Singapore in the Second World War. It made them look incompetent. Their subject peoples around the world no longer looked up to them.

This is now the crisis faced by the Iranian government: they seem to have been revealed as all bluster, but incompetent.

And this is also the crisis faced by “the elites” worldwide—the clerisy, the professions. They are increasingly being shown up by the new, freer flow of information as not really knowing what they are doing.

Unrest in Iran

Image from Iran's "Green Revolution," 2009.

I think it was Craine Brinton who proposed, through his historical analysis, that revolutions do not happen because a government is seen as evil. They happen when a government is seen as incompetent.

Their recent tangle with Trump may have revealed the Iranian government to their own people as incompetent.

The Iranians, being Middle Eastern Muslims, probably understood better than Western journalists the significance of Iran’s firing their missiles into the Iraqi dirt in response to America’s assassination of Soleimani. It was an admission of powerlessness. As I have noted previously, Islam is predisposed to assume that strength shows God’s sanction.

More critical was the downing of the Ukrainian airliner. Canadian reports stress how many Canadians were on board. But these were surely dual citizens, returning from a visit with relatives in Iran. The Iranian government shot down an airliner full of Iranians. One can understand why they were reluctant to admit it.

It is of course absurd to suggest that they did it on purpose. But it suggests panic and incompetence. It suggests a government not fit to govern.

The Iranian Islamic Republic was already subject to mass unrest. This could trigger their downfall.

Al Jazeera on the Ukrainian Passenger Jetliner Downing

Like Russian TV, Al Jazeera shows itself more reliable and balanced on Iran than the CBC.

Being American as the Root of All Evil

It has apparently been confirmed by American satellite images that the Iranian air defense mistakenly shot down the Ukrainian airliner.

Responding to what was then only a theory, one leftist friend posted on Facebook, “If this happened as a result of that ignorant sleazebag in the White House, I hope the next missile lands squarely on him.”

Another leftist suggested that it was probably an American drone that shot down the plane, not an Iranian missile.

Another comments “Trump should have been assassinated.”

Another: “Was watching Amanpour & Co. on PBS last night. The interviews and talks were on the Iran situation. At least one of the Americans, can't remember who, presented a bizarre concept: acceptable levels of retaliation. He said the actions taken by Iran to retaliate against the killing of that general were within acceptable levels, and that Iran was careful not to poke the bear. So exactly who establishes these levels? Is taking down a passenger plane OK?”

Another writes “Iranian missiles? Yeah sure, America, I believe you.”

Surely this rises to the level of delusion. No matter what happens, the Americans must be responsible, and the Iranians can bear no responsibility.

It is similar when it comes to dealing with women: no matter what they do, blame must be placed on the nearest available male.

In the end, this is profoundly demeaning to both women and Iranians. In denying them free will, it denies them moral worth. It denies them a soul.

Not, of course, that it is good for Americans. They are made out to be the source of all evil. It’s the same logic behind the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and the International Jewish Conspiracy.

Word War Three Update Update

I see reports that Iran actually warned the US in advance of their missile strikes yesterday, so that the Americans could get all their personnel out of harm’s way. After the strike, they announced that they had finished their “retaliation,” and would not do anything more so long as the Americans didn’t respond.

In other words, purely symbolic, to save face.

In the meantime, it looks as though the Iranians were so panicky about a new American attack that they mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian commercial airliner in Tehran, no doubt imagining it was an incoming bomber.

World War III Update

There is no question in my mind that Trump made a mistake in suggesting the US might, if provoked, bomb Iranian cultural sites. I assume he was bluffing, but even so, it sends the message that his fight is with Iran and Iranian culture, rather than with the present government. This is not true; the average Iranian, by all reports I have heard from those who have visited Iran, is likely to be on Trump’s side at this point. But threatening to destroy elements of their culture threatens that, and strengthens the current regime.

And it would be militarily and strategically senseless to bomb cultural sites. All loss, no gain. If Iran wants to provoke the US further, there are truly valuable targets easily available. This is why I expect the Iranian response to be muted. They have to do something, or lose face. But they dare not escalate.

They have fired a few mortar rounds and a few missiles. But it actually looks as though they were fired to just miss their targets. No casualties. And the Iranian cyber squad has apparently hacked into—the US federal library system. That's got to hurt. There's a comedy skit in that.

Its mountainous terrain makes Iran hard to invade on the ground. But its geography also makes vulnerable. It has little access to the sea, to export the oil on which its economy depends. Trump could level the few exposed port facilities easily. No need even to thread through layers of air defense. He could also easily blockade at the Strait of Hormuz.

And he could exploit any provocation to try to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities. This, after all, was plan A before Obama sought conciliation: either the US or Israel was going to try to bomb them.