The Virus that Wears a Crown

The beauties of nature, revealed under the microscope.

Everyone is concerned about the coronavirus. A social group I attend here in Toronto has cancelled all meetings until further notice. People are clearly panicked.

I have not commented on it yet, because I have no expertise in this area. In medical terms, my guess about it all is no better than the reader’s.

I read some “experts” saying this is all hype, that it looks no more dangerous, on the whole, then the average flu. I hear other experts saying this is the most serious public health risk we have seen since the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918-19. Whom do you believe?

And, for that matter, how much can they really know? Judgements are more difficult because it is happening in China, where government figures cannot be trusted.

On the one hand the reported ratio between number of cases and number of deaths does look to me as though this is not an especially dangerous infection. Just a fast-moving one. On the other hand, the Chinese government has now taken such drastic measures, quarantining the entire centre of the country, that it looks as though they know something we do not.

Without any medical knowledge, my knowledge of journalism, of politics, and of Chinese culture makes me think it is probably not time to panic.

Experts always have a vested interest in predicting the most dire consequences. It makes their expertise more marketable. It gains them attention and prestige.

The media always have a vested interest in predicting the most dire consequences. It sells papers, it generates clicks.

And the Chinese government?

Face matters a lot in China. The authorities are surely still smarting from criticism over their handling of SARS. They are vulnerable to criticism for downplaying and suppressing news of the early stages of the present outbreak. And so it would be natural for them to now overreact dramatically to try to prevent such criticism. “Look at how seriously we took it! We did everything we could!”

There is no reason to suppose that, because a government does something, it was the right thing to do in medical terms, as opposed to the right thing to do in political terms.

And there is more. Traditional Chinese philosophy is that a government’s legitimacy is based on the “mandate of heaven.” What is below reflects what is above. If, then nature seems to be hostile, if there is some great natural disaster, this suggests that the government has been improperly reading the will of heaven, and has lost the mandate to rule.

This still applies; it is why the first instinct was, with coronavirus as with SARS before it, to deny anything serious was going on, and to suppress the news. Because the very existence of the epidemic reflects badly on the government.

Things were looking shaky already, with the protests in Hong Kong, the trade troubles with the US, and disappointing economic figures.

The extreme measures now being taken may have less to do with stopping the virus, than with making a show of force to discourage rebellion. The government is demonstrating its raw power, and just how ruthless it is prepared to be, if challenged.

Still, this smacks of desperation. Because now, however serious the virus turns out to be, the government quarantine will case a big economic hit. And, if the virus turns out not to be particularly deadly, or mutates into something less harmful, they risk looking foolish and panicked.

This suggests how fragile they think their position is. Intimidation is, in their minds, the only card they have left to play.