The First Debate: Any Bets?

Kennedy debates Nixon. Nixon loses on makeup.

The first US Presidential debate is tomorrow. If I were a betting man, I’d bet Romney will be declared the “winner.” Here’s why:

First, the polls say people are expecting Obama to do better. That means Romney has a lower bar in order to impress. We also know that Obama’s record is not popular; people are looking for an excuse to back Romney.

Romney has had a lot more recent practice. The Republican primaries sometimes seemed like all debate, all the time. By contrast, Obama has avoided even any hard questioning for years. Indeed, it is usual for the incumbent to “lose” the first debate. Incumbents tend to come in to the first debate rusty and as if not used to being challenged. This is probably the nature of the job. And Obama is certainly capable of seeming distracted and unengaged.

Carter debates Ford: Ford loses on geography.

Obama is a good speaker, but he has never shown himself to be a particularly good debater. Romney’s performance in the past, on the other hand, has been pretty solid. I think overall he did second best in his field of seven, after Newt Gingrich, as a debater. And as Gingrich says, he seems particularly good when the chips are down.

We also know Romney has spent more time than Obama prepping for this particular debate.

But there’s more. I think it is interesting that Obama has retired for three days to what is essentially a luxury golf resort in Nevada in order to prepare for the debates. We know the President is an avid golfer. If he does not plan to play golf, this location is going to be a major distraction to his preparations. If he does plan to play golf, this location is going to be a very major distraction to his preparations. So why did his campaign choose this location? See my previous musings that Obama may not be all that driven to win a second term. He might find the chance to get in a little golf in the middle of the campaign more important than winning reelection. If so, not only will he enter the debate unprepared; he may enter the debate not entirely sure he wants to win the debate.

Carter debates Reagan: Reagan wins on geniality.

Finally, this time the press may not be on his side to spin things for him. Regardless of the press’s partisan bias, which is real, there is one thing above all else that matters to a journalist. That is maintaining a good narrative, finding “news,” keeping things interesting. What would be the biggest news that could come out of the debate? Romney campaign collapses? Nope; they’ve been running with that one for a couple of weeks now. At this point, it risks being boring. The best news angle would now be the opposite of that: Obama strikes out in first debate; can Romney close the gap? This is another reason why the incumbent is almost always seen to lose the first debate, and a reason why whoever is the underdog at this point almost always starts moving up. Accordingly, if the media are given an opening that allows it, they will be most inclined to spin this in Romney’s favour, even if they do all personally want Obama to win.

Romney debates everyone.

Is it possible the mainstream media are really so partisan they would refuse to do this if the opening occurred? Perhaps; but only if they are Democrats first, and journalists second.