Did Biden Win?

Who is that grinning jackanapes being mean to that nice young man?

I have seen more than one claim that Joe Biden won the VP debate last week, and not, as I said here, Paul Ryan. I can't figure out where they are getting the justification for this claim. Surely the fast reaction polls are definitive, if anything is. Joe Biden won one, by CBS; Ryan won three.

And this is aside from the crucial likability factor. As I have argued here before, I think this is the single most important factor in deciding who becomes president: who the electorate finds most likable. Who they want to see in their living rooms over the next four years. Nixon, many argue, won the 1960 debates on substance, but he looked too creepy. Gore lost the 2000 debates by looking too pushy. Kerry won the 2004 debates on substance, but came across as whiny, and it killed him.

If this is indeed the main factor, and I think history shows it plainly, Biden did himself and Obama about as much good as a wrecking ball. He'd have scuttled the ticket, had he been on top. As it is, since it was only the VP debate, it will have little significance. But what significance it has was not to Obama's benefit.

Witness this local poll.