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Early voting in Ohio gives a new clue that the polls might be wrong. They are almost all predicated on a significantly higher turnout of Democrats than Republicans, similar to 2008.
However, we can now begin to judge that premise against early voting trends. The Washington Examiner reports that in Ohio, the electorate asking for absentee ballots is currently much more Republican than in 2008. In 2008, it was 33% Democrat, 19% Republican. This time, it is 29% Democrat, 24% Republican. That's down from a 14 point gap to a 5 point gap, a swing of 9 points.
Now just consider pulling nine points off the current polls. The RealClearPolitics average of polls, even before the debate blowout this week, showed Obama up by three points. This suggests he went into the first debate behind by six.
However, we can now begin to judge that premise against early voting trends. The Washington Examiner reports that in Ohio, the electorate asking for absentee ballots is currently much more Republican than in 2008. In 2008, it was 33% Democrat, 19% Republican. This time, it is 29% Democrat, 24% Republican. That's down from a 14 point gap to a 5 point gap, a swing of 9 points.
Now just consider pulling nine points off the current polls. The RealClearPolitics average of polls, even before the debate blowout this week, showed Obama up by three points. This suggests he went into the first debate behind by six.
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