No October Surprise

Boo! the ghosts of Octobers past.

In predicting a Romney win, I am assuming no event will arise to reverse the current momentum. I am betting against a proverbial October surprise.

Time alone makes that less likely. The one October surprise I most expected, an Israeli bombing of Iran, is surely not going to happen before the election now. If the Israelis had calculated that they had to do it before the election, they would have done it well before, so that as much dust as possible could settle before voting in the US. They do not want to help Obama get re-elected. If they have waited this long, it makes sense to wait just a bit longer. If Obama wins, they can go as early as November 7. If Romney wins, they may not have to go.

Obama does not have the option of a “Wag the Dog” adventure to rally the nation behind him. He can’t suddenly go into Syria, for example. The US is too war-weary. Anything that looked like voluntary involvement on Obama’s part would work against him.

What else might happen? A terrorist attack? If so, this works in Romney’s favour, not Obama’s. Obama has staked his reputation too plainly on getting Bin Laden, with the implication that he is the conqueror of Al Qaeda. He has to at least look better than Bush post-9/11 on this score. This is the obvious explanation for the administration’s denial for two weeks that the Benghazi attack was an act of terrorism.

An economic collapse in Europe or China? Again, works for Romney, against Obama, as Romney is the guy who’s supposed to know economics.

Some sudden peace gesture by Chavez, Ahmadinejad, or Kim? This has actually been rumoured. But it would be hard to predict how this would play. It would have to be something substantial not to look like a stall. But if substantial, it would look as though they were seeking to influence an American election, or even as if they were working with Obama. Since they are America’s enemies, this does not necessarily reflect on Obama favourably. Probably the reverse.

That leaves some personal scandal. Here again, the possibilities favour Romney. He seems to be a genuinely straight-up guy in terms of his personal life. Not drinking eliminates a lot of opportunities for scandal. A former leader of his church, still married to his high school sweetheart. This could all be a hypocritical sham, sure. But he’s the son of a famous man; he grew up in the public spotlight. What are the chances he could have maintained such a sham for so long?

On Obama’s side, by contrast, his early life is obscure, so that it is possible to imagine something troubling there that we do not yet know. In fact, there are many rumours about this—not just the bagatelle about his birth certificate. If the reader has not seen them, I am not going to repeat them.

If, however, the Romney campaign has anything on Obama, they probably won’t release it. If they are winning anyway, as they seem to be, there is no point in doing so. And any slinging of mud holds risks—the chance of a backfire is fairly high.

Nice try, Donald Trump. Nice Try, Gloria Allred.