Why Now, Rishi?

If only it were Justin Trudeau instead of Rishi Sunak. Unexpectedly, trailing by over 20 points in the polls and with some months to go in his mandate, Sunak has called a snap election for July 4. In the rain.

It has taken everyone by surprise, and it makes no sense in usual political terms. The conventional thing would be to hold on in hopes that polls might improve. As they say, a week is a long time in politics. Even at worst, holding off means a few more months to exercise power and to look for your next job.

It has to be that Sunak knows something we don’t know. The more so since this has all the appearances of being a rushed announcement, as though there is some emergency. Cabinet ministers were summoned to a sudden meeting; some of them had to cut trips abroad. Tory backbenchers were not consulted or informed. The announcement was not well staged: in the rain, without an umbrella, with opposition loudspeakers blaring. Sunak did not seem to have any particular campaign theme or message prepared.

It surely has to mean that something dreadful is likely to drop in the next few months. Sunak needs to get the election over with quickly, or the Tories will fare even worse. 

What is likely to be that drastic?

My guess is, it has to do with the Covid vaccines and the rise in mortality since the epidemic. Something may be about to come out; something worse that we have yet heard. Sunak may have seen a preliminary draft of some report.