Downfall

 

The common wisdom is that Justin Trudeau’s poll numbers are collapsing now because people are tired of his government. There is a natural cycle, and nobody stays in for more than about ten years.

That’s what the established punditry wants you to believe. Because they like Trudeau’s policies, and hope they continue.

I think this is wrong. Canada is actually unusual among democracies for keeping governments and leaders they like in power for a long time: Mackenzie King, Ontario’s Big Blue Machine, Smallwood in Newfoundland, Hatfield in New Brunswick, the Tories in Alberta, Duplessis in Quebec, and so on.

Second, Trudeau was never popular. He squeaked in twice by merely coming second in a three-way race. 

Third, only being tired of him does not tally with such a dramatic poll collapse. It looks more like some pent-up anger is at last being allowed expression.

Until now, quite simply, nobody offered an alternative. Scheer and O’Toole promised to govern the same way he was. They effectively endorsed Trudeau. All you got was a new face. The NDP under Singh was also indistinguishable on ideology. Much as they may have hated Trudeau’s policies or approach, they despised Scheer or O’Toole or Singh as much as Trudeau, or more, for denying them that choice.

Poilievre is their first chance to vote against6 Trudeau. They are excited about it.