Why Trump Should Win in 2024

 

Pundits are saying a race between Biden and Trump is a tossup, that the polls are neck and neck.

But polls also show a large majority of people do not want to see another contest between Biden and Trump.

So if that is what is offered to them—which seems at this point most likely—what happens?

Those who support Trump will come out in huge numbers to vote, over the dead bodies of wild horses. The people who do not want a second matchup are anti-Trumpers dissatisfied with Biden. They don’t want Trump; but they don’t want Biden either. 

There is already at least one unusually strong third-party candidate in the race, Cornell West. And he is on the left. The general dissatisfaction with the choice of candidates is likely to draw others in: perhaps JFK Jr.; there is talk of a “no labels” candidacy by either Joe Manchin or former Maryland governor Larry Hogan.

They are not going to pull votes from Trump. You either love him or you hate him. Those who have him are never going to vote for him anyway. Those who love him will never vote for anyone else if he is running.

So ther support comes entirely from the anti-Trump side; which means entirely for Biden. Nobody feels that strongly about voting for Biden.

The resulting split in the anti-Trump vote should throw the election to Trump.

Because Trump’s voters back him more strongly than Biden’s voters back Biden, this predictable strong showing by third parties should throw the election to Trump.