Playing the Indian Card

Showing posts with label American presidential election 2024. Show all posts
Showing posts with label American presidential election 2024. Show all posts

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Mostly on the US Debate

 



Events are moving quickly; this is not a quiet summer. The Tories in the UK are in a panic. Reform is in a panic. The Republicans in France are in a panic. The Democrats in the US are in a panic. Things are almost moving too fast for commentary. What I say now may be obsolete in a few hours.

In the US, even all the left-wing commentators have turned on Joe Biden. His performance in the debate was historically bad. The best they can muster is the claim that, while Biden was incoherent. Trump was lying about everything. 

They never cite any particular lie. That perhaps says everything.

I did track down a list on CNN’s web site:

Trump: “Hard to believe, they have some states passing legislation where you can execute the baby after birth. It’s crazy.”

Trump went on to cite to the former governor of Virginia, Ralph Northram. Here’s what Northram actually said, referring to his proposed legislation:

“The infant would be delivered, the infant would be kept comfortable, the infant would be resuscitated if that's what the mother and the family desired, and then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother.”

But that legislation was, in the end, voted down in the legislature.

There were other close calls in New York and California, but the bills were amended before being passed.

So Trump was not correct. Directionally true, perhaps, as his supporters often say, but an exaggeration. But it might also be unfair to characterize it as a deliberate lie; Trump was speaking without notes. He may only have been foggy on the details. “Have tried to pass” would have been correct.

Trump: “I say, let the states decide. This is — every legal scholar wanted this to be where abortion should be.”

And of course, not EVERY legal scholar wanted the states to decide on abortion. To begin with, obviously, the justices of the Supreme Court count as legal scholars, and a majority of them voted for Roe v. Wade fifty years ago. A minority voted to keep Roe V. Wade last year. 

But given that the strict literal sense of the claim was obviously false, surely it was clear to everyone that Trump was not speaking literally, but using the common exaggeration, as in “everybody knows.”

The network counts as a lie Trump’s claim that there were no terrorist attacks during his presidency: “we didn’t have an attack for four years.”

CNN then cites an attack in New York that killed eight people in 2017, right after his election; and an attack by a lone gunman that killed three soldiers at an army base in Florida in 2019.

Another case of Trump being directionally correct, but exaggerating. He did not mean literally “none.” Just as we might say, “nobody loves a rainy day,” without expecting to be challenged with an example of someone who does.

They also count as a lie Trumps’ claim that the 2020 election was “rigged” or “stolen.” Which is, at a minimum, a legitimate opinion. 

And they counted Trump’s claim that Biden got money from China as a lie because it was presented “with no evidence.” There certainly is evidence of this; although it has not (yet?) been proven in a court of law. 

And the commentators never point out that, apart from not making sense, Biden told many lies. As, to be fair, all politicians do, pretty much all the time. Yet, mysteriously, it is only Trump who is ever accused of this. Biden actually claimed that there were fewer illegals crossing the border now than when Trump left office, and that the numbers are declining. He claimed to have gotten inflation down from where it was under Trump. There was essentially no inflation under Trump. He claimed that Trump initiated the policy of “children in cages,” which was inherited from the Democratic administration in which Biden was vice-president. He claimed that there were people wearing swastikas marching in Charlottesville, and that Trump had called them “fine people.” This has even been debunked by left-wing Snopes.

And so it goes.

Surely Biden now has no chance against Trump. And there is no good way for party insiders and powers to swap him out at this late date.

They did this to themselves, by forcing RFK Jr. out of the primaries and out of the party. Were RFK coming into the convention with a pledged minority of delegates, they could have plausibly coalesced around him at the last minute.

But even if the convention were to turn to someone other than Biden, the backroom powers have tied their own hands. The convention is scheduled for so late in the season that, if the nominee turns out to be anyone other then Biden, it will be too late to get them on the ballot in at least the critical swing state of Ohio.

Bottom line: Biden is not the only incompetent in power on the left.





Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Trump or Chaos

 


The electoral system has declined so badly in the US that the Democrats are blatantly trying to rig the 2024 election by indicting their leading opponent and trying to take his name off the ballot. 

Given how thoroughly they have discredited the process, it is urgent that Donald Trump be declared the winner in 2024. That is now the only way to restore public confidence. If Trump does not win, his supporters are unlikely to accept the result, and their only recourse, the electoral process having been withdrawn, would appear to be insurrection or civil war.

We can be grateful that it has not reached this stage in Canada yet, although the Canadian Liberal government is hurrying down that same path.


Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Why Trump Should Win in 2024

 


Pundits are saying a race between Biden and Trump is a tossup, that the polls are neck and neck.

But polls also show a large majority of people do not want to see another contest between Biden and Trump.

So if that is what is offered to them—which seems at this point most likely—what happens?

Those who support Trump will come out in huge numbers to vote, over the dead bodies of wild horses. The people who do not want a second matchup are anti-Trumpers dissatisfied with Biden. They don’t want Trump; but they don’t want Biden either. 

There is already at least one unusually strong third-party candidate in the race, Cornell West. And he is on the left. The general dissatisfaction with the choice of candidates is likely to draw others in: perhaps JFK Jr.; there is talk of a “no labels” candidacy by either Joe Manchin or former Maryland governor Larry Hogan.

They are not going to pull votes from Trump. You either love him or you hate him. Those who have him are never going to vote for him anyway. Those who love him will never vote for anyone else if he is running.

So ther support comes entirely from the anti-Trump side; which means entirely for Biden. Nobody feels that strongly about voting for Biden.

The resulting split in the anti-Trump vote should throw the election to Trump.

Because Trump’s voters back him more strongly than Biden’s voters back Biden, this predictable strong showing by third parties should throw the election to Trump.


Friday, June 23, 2023

RFK Jr.

 


I can’t help being excited by RFK Jr.’s presidential bid. I think, at a minimum, he is going to change the popular discourse dramatically—I think he already has--and ensure that Biden does not win a second term. One way or another, this is going to be historic.

As things stand, Biden and the Democratic Party are trying to fix the nomination for Biden by moving the South Carolina primary up to become the first contest. Iowa and New Hampshire are naturally enough unhappy with this. Moreover, the New Hampshire constitution mandates that NH must go before anyone else. 

So all the Biden campaign can do is refuse to run in these first two contests. That means Kennedy sweeps these first two contests. They can refuse to seat his delegates, but this gets him media and momentum. Since the Republicans are running primaries at the same time, they will not be ignored. Calculating that the Biden campaign can block this momentum with a big win in South Carolina is a gamble.

Meantime, the charges of corruption are gathering around Biden. Meantime, the signs of mental decline are multiplying. But by backing Biden and keeping everyone else out of the race, the Dem establishment has no backup, if Biden falters or becomes unelectable.

They are trying to keep RFK out of the media. But this is not likely to work as well as it did: alternative outlets like Joe Rogan now get much more viewership than the old “mainstream,” and on these alternative platforms, RFK is sought and active. He is highly articulate, he comes across as utterly sincere, he has a compelling case and a compelling personal story.

I myself find it hard to resist the personal story. Those of my generation were permanently traumatized by the assassination of JFK. It was when the postwar promise of America seemed to end, when everything started to go wrong. RFK looked like a chance to get back on track, and then he was assassinated too. It was hard not to believe a conspiracy was involved. Now RFK Jr. looks, to us old fogies, like a possibility to, even at this late date, make it all right again. 

They can try all the dirty tricks they used to keep Bernie Sanders from the nomination, twice. But each time they do this they take a grave risk of alienating their base. They covered for that last time by having Biden adopt a large part of the far-left agenda. But I think they miscalculated. People did not support Bernie Sanders because of his platform. They supported him because he seemed sincere and not a part of the establishment. A lot of strong Sanders supporters are now accused of being on the right: Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard.

Now RFK has that same ground. It is probably a majority of Democratic voters. Sanders should have won, had he not been blocked, and Sanders was not an attractive candidate—too old, and unknown before he ran. RFK is more attractive, with more compelling issues, and with Kennedy charisma.

Block him as they blocked Sanders? No doubt they can do it, but if they do, I expect they will have gone to the well too many times. RFK comes into the race already looking like a martyr; because his father and his uncle were martyred; because he has been censored for his views on vaccines. Strike him down now, and the consequences could be dire for the Dems. If their base does not defect to the Republicans, Cornell West is running. Rumours are Joe Manchin may run too. That gives alternatives to both left and right. Many more could simply stay at home.

In the meantime, Kennedy is forcing a debate on the Covid vaccine and the lockdowns, which is devastating to the establishment. People will want to vote against the establishment as a first priority. If not RFK, their choice is not going to be Biden.



Sunday, June 04, 2023

2024 Predictions



I think RFK Jr. is an exceptionally attractive candidate. The Earth is moving beneath us. 

The Democratic Party establishment is determined to go with Biden and Harris, who are notably unpopular. Voters have growing reason to believe Biden is not in control of his faculties. The are both low in the polls. But the hubris of the Democratic establishment knows no bounds.

RFK is likely to win the first primary, in New Hampshire. Against a sitting president. In most years, that would clinch it. 

I expect the Democratic Party establishment is likely instead to blatantly rig the nomination process to keep him out. They will prevent other candidates from jumping in, the same way they managed to get everyone to jump out in 2020. They think they can get away with it, because they have previously gotten away ith it, against Bernie Sanders and the far left.

But I think they will run out of luck. I see RFK putting together a run as an independent; and I think a lot of other Democrats will join him. Imagine a ticket of RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard; almost a dream ticket in terms of charisma. Imagine Kristen Sinema and Joe Manchin flocking to these new colours. Imagine vocal support from dissatisfied leftists like Jimmy Dore and Joe Rogan in the media. They could pull a lot of votes, I suspect, if well-funded. Not enough to win, but enough to be a big factor, and establish a new party that might survive and supplant the current Democrats over time.

They could run on a peace platform, against big pharma and big business, for environmentalism, and against the extremities of the trans movement and the culture war. As the religious left, and as a reset of the Democrats to what they stood for in the late Sixties; “Kennedy Democrats.”

On the Republican side such a split has already happened, in 2016, and the insurgents won. That was when Trump took control of the party for the populists against the establishment.

Mike Pence is now the standard-bearer of the old guard. But I can’t see him overtaking Trump in the polls, and I can’t see them splitting off, as they did in 2016 under McMullin. That would look too much like a dead end. They will suck it up and back Trump. Conceivably, a few might move to RFK; but I can’t see even a Mitt Romney feeling more comfortable there. Because he is purely establishment, and RFK is anti-establishment. 

How about Trump’s VP pick? Unless something changes dramatically, as it certainly can, everybody else looks as though they are running for vice-president. Nobody but DeSantis is within range of Trump.

 Many are hoping for a Trump-DeSantis ticket. I think it is possible, even if they are going at it hammer and tongs for now. It would not work with DeSantis at the top of the ticket; that would seem too much of a comedown for a former president. But if Trump comes out on top, he holds no grudges. DeSantis might, in ordinary circumstances, be too big a beast to be content with second-best, but since Trump is limited to a single term, he might go for it.

Chris Christie is reputedly about to enter the race. He surely has no reasonable chance at the top of the ticket. My guess is he is consciously running for the vice-presidency. He is hoping to raise his profile. Having more people in the race actually helps Trump; he might even be a plant. Christie is a good attack dog; he took down Marco Rubio in 2016. Presidents generally like Vice Presidents who are attack dogs. Trump certainly does. He wanted Newt Gingrich on the ticket in 2016, for this reason. He had to take Pence thanks to pressure from party stalwarts. This time, he will not have that pressure. Newt is a little long in the tooth; but Christie might fit the bill. He could prove himself in the primaries.

Also auditioning for the vp slot, and highly suitable: Tim Scott, Larry Elder, and Nikki Haley. They are hoping, no doubt, to become diversity hires.

The cards look good for a Trump win.