The Real Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

 

Genghis Khan, founder of the Yuan

A Chinese student of mine, asked to think of a way the Song Dynasty could have saved themselves from their eventual conquest by the Mongols—a historical hypothetical—came up with the obvious solution. The Mongols were militarily superior; but the Song Dynasty was rich. Paying off the Mongols to leave them alone would not work—it just proved the place was worth conquering. That’s “Danegeld.” The obvious trick, he said, was to pay off junior Mongol officers individually, to subvert the Mongol effort.

That’s good Chinese thinking.

It stands to reason that China is doing this now, as part of their asymmetrical “wolf warrior diplomacy.” They are paying off people in foreign governments.

After all, this is what the British did for centuries. This is largely what “foreign aid” has always been—bribes to Third World leaders and elites. This is what China’s public “Belt and Road initiative” is. 

Why wouldn’t the Chinese also be paying off Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Jacinta Ardern, Anthony Albanese, Duterte in the Philippines, Moon in South Korea? This would explain their strange but persistent downplaying of the Chinese threat. Even politicians who campaign on anti-Chinese rhetoric, seem to end up not doing anything substantial. Obama’s “pivot to Asia” never happened. Duterte campaigned on military confrontation with China over the South China Sea; in power, he actually floated the idea of the Philippines joining China. 

Rhetoric may vary; but it would be foolish, of course, to bribe only one side. You’re going to buy some Conservative MPs as well.

Note too, as my student saw, that it is even more useful to bribe people lower down, who will have less personal prestige and profit invested the success of the country as a whole. You start by bribing amenable congressmen, senators, vice presidents, MPs. They may or may not then rise higher; with your help. Of course you will also want to bribe prominent members of the press, the security services, and the military. 

Bribery is how business is done in China; certainly including the business of government. Why wouldn’t they do the same overseas? It is not necessarily a matter of cash hand to hand; that is crude and undignified. The money can go to a family member; a fake or ceremonial position can be created with generous pay or a generous honourarium; a personal foundation can be funded.

Bribing prominent businessmen will not even be necessary. So long as it is profitable, they will tag along for the opportunity to do business in China.

The current government of China, as it controls the entire Chinese economy, is sitting on mountains of money. Relatively speaking, it would not be expensive to pay such bribes; cheaper, on the whole, and more effective, than money spent directly on arms. 

One would have to be somewhat discreet. But so long as you are also bribing people in the security service and the media, not all that discreet. 

What is preventing such a thing from happening? 

Only the patriotism and sense of honour of those in power in the West. This was always the West’s great advantage: those in charge sincerely believed in what they were doing, in the march of civilization, the rightness of the cause, and in personal honour and ethics.

This is obviously less the case now than it was. Our elites now seem ager to criticize their own countries, “Western civilization,” and “conventional morality.” Giving them an alibi to opt for self-interest. 

And they often seem to grow wealthy in government service. Is that possible, playing it straight and narrow, on a government salary? 

Of course they are being bribed by Big Business, by Big Pharma, by Big Oil, by Big Tobacco, by the various interest groups. Why not also by foreign governments?

There is no solution to this other than a return to the principles of Judeo-Christian morality. In the end, nations rise and fall on their moral worth.