What If Russia Cracks?

 

More tentatively good news: the attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia.

Not that this is good in itself. 

But the subtext is that Armenia is a Russian client state. Now that Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine, it is pulling resources from other areas, and its weakness is exposed. Other restive areas may similarly be emboldened. This could push the Russian regime towards general collapse. It could also overturn several other unsavory regimes.

The regimes in Kazakhistan, Belarus, and Syria all recently faced civil unrest that probably have overthrown the government had Russia not sent in troops. This might appear to many there as the ideal moment to try again, or launch a new offensive. Georgia might try to retake breakaway territory Russia seized from them.

Other vulnerable Russian client states: Mongolia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Transnistria.

Within the Russian Federation, there are 22 “republics,” ethnically distinct from Russia, which might seize the chance to split off. Often they are ethically linked to a neighboring country, which might be happy to assist in this process. Or, for that matter, invade.

We may be watching a snowball starting downhill.

While for a time things might get chaotic, the result might be major gains for liberal democracy. And a unified Europe stretching to the Urals.