Mysteries of the Hundred-Acre Wood

 

Preferred pronoun: "xi"

Is something going on in China? There is still no indication in the mainstream press; just rumours on Twitter.

That does not mean nothing is happening. It took a week before the mainstream acknowledged the protests currently going on in Iran. The Clinton-Lewinsky affair was first leaked on Drudge Report. For two years, the mainstream media refused to acknowledge the Hunter Biden laptop story. 

This is not, at least in this case, a rap on traditional journalism. It is irresponsible to report unsubstantiated rumours. It is hard to know what is really happening in Iran, or in the Chinese government. It is expensive to find out; and it is all happening far away.

These days, however, for good or ill, we still hear the unsubstantiated rumours, whether the legitimate press picks up on them or not.

Sometimes such rumours are true; where there’s smoke, there is often fire.

I think some power struggle is indeed ongoing in China. That’s little more than a gut instinct. It makes sense that it would, given China’s economic turmoil, the upcoming party congress expected to confirm Xi in power forever, recent harsh convictions of some of his rivals, and his recent trip abroad.

Chinese leaders have a habit of being deposed while they are on a trip abroad. A rash of harsh convictions of rivals can trigger a Robespierre effect—get rid of the tyrant before he comes for you too. By taking such total control and encouraging a personality cult, Xi has taken responsibility for whatever goes wrong. If things are really bad, the quick fix is to scapegoat him. And then there is the Julius Caesar effect: stab him before he makes himself emperor, and becomes too powerful.

I think the cancelled flights are confirmed by reputable sources. I see the videos of long military columns heading towards Beijing. Perhaps nothing has come out publicly, because the end is still in doubt. Nobody has anything yet to announce.

Xi may still be in the game. Or it may still be unclear who replaces him.