Raining Shoes

 

Amidst the current chaos, there is a sense that a second shoe has not yet dropped. Nobody seems sure what happens next.

Half of commentators are sounding the alarm about China’s imminent rise to world hegemony. The other half are saying its economy will collapse within weeks.

Half of commentators are saying Russia is winning against Ukraine, and any Ukrainian victory is a pipedream. Half say Russia is on the verge of exhaustion.

Half say Russia is near default due to sanctions. Half say Russia is actually benefitting from them, and the West suffering.

Half are saying the Trudeau government is on its last legs, and the rise of Pierre Poilievre is historic. Half are saying the Liberals are planning a snap fall election to grab their majority, and Pierre Poilievre will reduce the Tories to a fringe party..

Half are saying Trump has finally been caught red-handed, and faces prison time. Half are saying the recent FBI raid ensures he wins the next election.

Half are saying we are entering a period of severe inflation. Half are saying any inflation is temporary. And some are actually saying the problem will be deflation.

Half are saying we are in a recession. Half deny it. Some say it is a historic depression.

I expect this is an inevitable step on the downward slope, once the cognoscenti have declared there is no reality. Now nobody knows any longer what is real.

Add to this the real instability we have been living through; we have come to expect the unexpected.

I hold out hopes that, two years or so from now, Pierre Poilievre will be prime minister, Donald Trump will be US president, Xi will be gone, Putin will be gone, and Pope Francis will have resigned. The COVID crisis passed, the economies of Europe and North America will be booming, while India, Indonesia, Vietnam and others take up the manufacturing slack from a relatively weaker China transitioning to democracy. All appear to be real possibilities, 50/50 in the absence of reliable data. And if they all come true, it looks like a dawning golden age.