A Fall Election?

 

A rumour is going round that there may be an election in the fall: called by the Liberals, not forced. Justin Trudeau almost seems to be campaigning this summer. 

This at first seems mad to me. Didn’t we have an indecisive election only a year ago, and wasn’t almost the biggest issue the frivolousness of calling an unnecessary election?

This fall we look likely to be suffering from rampant inflation, recession, supply problems, possibly a renewed pandemic, and, some warn, food shortages. Is this a good time for a government to call an election? People have been rioting against governments in Holland and Sri Lanka.

Nor can the Liberals claim, as they did last time, that their legislative program is being blocked. They have their informal coalition with the NDP.

It seems as though Trudeau may genuinely believe that his opposition is only a “fringe minority.” He anticipates Pierre Poilievre winning the Conservative leadership, thinks the general public will be appalled by his “far-right” ideas, and that he, Trudeau, can now grab a majority, freeing him from needing to cater to the NDP. The unrest among the unwashed can even be his issue: the need to put down this radical fringe of racists and misogynists and the supposed like.

This may be a measure of Liberal hubris. They may be out of touch with how ordinary Canadians feel. Or I am.

I’d put money on a big Liberal loss.