The State of the Conservative Race

 

Since more than half of the current membership of the Conservative Party have been recruited through Pierre Poilievre’s website, the strong presumption must be that he is going to win the Tory leadership on the first ballot. It is now unlikely that any Conservative politicians are going to see a future in attacking him publicly; or, indeed, supporting his rivals. We may be at the point of inevitability. 

The strategy of Jean Charest and Patrick Brown until now, of attacking Poilievre with unprecedented venom, now looks very bad for them. Especially for Charest, who has the bigger reputation, and more to lose. Given that Brown reputedly signed up 150,000 new members, Charest looks likely to come no higher than third on the first ballot. That’s especially an embarrassment for someone with his stature. Thinking only in terms of his own political future, I would bow out now, declare my enthusiastic support for Poilievre, and make much of calling for party unity. Even start actively campaigning for Poilievre. He could then look like the kingmaker, and could claim to have made a personal sacrifice for the party. If Poilievre wins the next election, he might hope for an important cabinet post. If Poiiievre loses, he has now paid his dues and would be well-positioned to run as his replacement.

If Charest drops out, will others stay in? Brown might not. Lewis might as well stay on as a spare in case emergency, and to keep it interesting; but will stop attacking the frontrunner. Baber and Atchison might as well stay in, as they were always only in to raise their profiles.

But it’s liable to be a quiet race from here on in.