A Prediction

 

I think Justin Trudeau will be out of power by Christmas.

His use of the Emergency Act has been revealed to have been illegal. Inflation and the economy are in a death spiral. Actual food shortages are predicted for late summer and fall. Trudeau is pig-headedly clinging to COVID mandates. Bill C-11 should hurt him; it is opposed not just by all the independent YouTubers, but also by Google and the like.  And he is ramming it through. These policies are self-destructive of him, but fit his adolescent mind set. Like a kid caught with his fist in a cookie jar, he is going to double down rather than pull back. It is going to be increasingly hard for Singh and the NDP to support him, and share the blame. If, as predicted, the Democrats go down in flames in the US midterms, that will have repercussions in Canada too.

Out of money or not, the NDP’s only hope of continued existence may soon be to turn fiercely against the Liberals, and belatedly try to claim credit for bringing that government down. They will have lots of opportunities for plausible cause.

After September, the Conservatives too will be at least as eager to have an election, with a groundswell of optimism behind their new leader; who is almost sure to be Pierre Poilievre.

In a campaign, I expect Poilievre to be an extremely effective campaigner for an electorate in a mood to throw the rascals-out. I think the Canadian electorate has already been in that mood for two election cycles, but the Conservatives did not offer them a clear alternative. Now there is tremendous pressure built up behind that dam.

It will be a historic defeat.