The Viral Future?

It has in recent decades become a commonplace among academics that diseases influence history.

As of course they do.

How might COVID-19 change the world?

I think there’s a good chance it leads to regime change in China and Iran. These governments were already in difficult relations with their people. The virus hits them in the middle of ongoing protests.

It’s not necessarily about how well or poorly they handle the virus, but the sense that God is passing judgement. I have posted on the possibility before. The Epoch Times, which thinks like the Chinese, has posted a video of strange animal behavior near Wuhan—notably large circling flocks of crows. Crows in China are birds of ill omen. They are so feared that they are killed on sight; so that they are rarely seen. It is hard to account for large flocks of crows appearing in the middle of China.

But what about in the USA? The two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination are advanced in age: Joe Biden is 77, Bernie Sanders is 78 with serious recent heart problems. Michael Bloomberg is 78. They are in the highest risk group for coronavirus. As politicians fighting a political campaign, they are going to be constantly in large crowds shaking hands. What are the odds that the Democratic nominee dies before election day?

Many suspect the Pope already has the virus. He is 83 and with half a lung gone. What happens if he dies? How does electing a new pope work in the middle of a viral epidemic? A few hundred old men locked together in a room for days or weeks until they choose someone? If one goes in with the virus, all come out with it, no doubt some on gurneys. And once the conclave ends, they all head to their home dioceses to spread the sickness worldwide?

And, more generally, trust in “experts” and governments is visibly taking a hit. Official sources like the WHO, the Chinese government, the CDC, have been rather consistently shown to be spreading false and dangerous information, while citizen journalists on social media have been more trustworthy.

Governments may always have been unreliable in this way, putting politics before the public health, but now with the Internet they get caught. People are liable to remember.