A Journal of the Plague Year

Out on my daily rambles, I do not really see much—since I am practicing social distancing, and so no going in any shops that might still be open. I do see that others are not practicing social distancing—not keeping the suggested two metres apart. I see them standing around in small groups, and often blocking exits and entrances so that others cannot possibly keep their distance.

I note with concern that the local laundromat has closed due to the virus. How are people going to do their laundry? Should be okay for me; there are machines in my building. And, at worst, I have enough clothes to go without a laundry for several weeks. Especially if I am not going out.
There are still, it seems to me, some mysteries surrounding the coronavirus.

Why did it seem to spare the tropics for a time? It is now apparently spreading in the tropics as well, but at least it seemed to stall for a time.

And why does the death toll seem so much higher in Italy or Iran than in Taiwan or Korea?

Why are some young people with no underlying comorbidities dying? While others barely have any symptoms?

It might be that how bad a dose you get depends on how heavy the initial exposure is. Italians, after all, are a lot more touchy-feely than Koreans or Chinese. You meet a friend, you hug.

I don’t know about Iranians.

If this is right, it seems a second good reason for the “social distancing” regime. It may not only reduce the number of cases, but reduce the severity.

If you’re going to get it, good idea to try to make it a light dose, and out the other side.

I hear people saying that the world will never be the same again. I don’t know, how much changed because of the Spanish flu? But some things may change.

Perhaps our existing school and university system. Everyone is about to learn about studying and teaching online. It is intrinsically cheaper and more convenient; are we going to go back to the old way?

If we learn online, we will be able to choose the best course and the best teacher for each subject; that’s surely a big advantage. Hard to go back after that to our little silos. The costs of the old way were already spiraling beyond sustainability anyway.

Globalization and open borders are another likely casualty. We now see the need to keep essential supply chains at home, or at least with reliable allies. We see the need to have doors on our countries as well as on our homes.

Some have said the EU has already, in effect, fallen apart, as the countries in the Schengen zone have closed their borders to each other.

Some worry about governments expanding powers to handle the emergency, and whether that power will be easily relinquished later. On the other side of the ledger, a lot of government regulations suddenly look unnecessary and annoying.

This should also give a boost to the practice of working from home; everyone will have developed systems to do it, and had some practice. As with schools and universities, it is a cheaper and more convenient alternative; for workers and for businesses.

If we begin more often to work at home, this diminishes the value of living in cities. In which real estate was already becoming insupportably expensive.

Cities now also suddenly seem unhealthy. They are virus sinks.

Cities may begin to shrink. This will not help their housing markets, of course.

With the value of the internet demonstrated in this crisis, there may be a push to guarantee internet access to everyone, as we now consider it essential that everyone have access to electricity and running water.

And, as I noted previously, we are getting to stress test our societies and governments. We may clean house as a result.