Biden's Super Tuesday

Biden.

The Democratic Party establishment seems to have fallen smartly into line to keep Bernie Sanders from winning their nomination. Only secondarily, I suspect, they have thrown the prize to Joe Biden.

They have done this, it is thought, in the cause of electability. That’s pretty much Biden’s only pitch within the party.

I suspect they have the wrong man. I suspect Biden would run worse against Trump than either of the main remaining alternatives, Sanders or Bloomberg.

The political pros usually get one vital thing wrong. They look at the last significant electoral success, and try to imitate it. This means, if they are the party out of power, that they look for a clone of the guy in power, whom they will run against.

The Liberals won with a youthful Trudeau promising “sunny ways.” So the Tories nominated a youthful smiling Scheer.

Always a bad idea, and they always do it. If you like the guy in power, you are going to vote for him, rather than someone who only resembles him. If you dislike him, and are not offered something different, you might just stay at home.

You can trace this through the procession of presidents or prime ministers of the past. Obama was laid-back and restrained in his manner—“No Drama Obama.” Trump is a loud showman. Harper was grey and full of gravitas—so the Canadian electorate went to Justin Trudeau, who promised glamour and excitement. And not to the favoured Tom Mulcair, who was trying to look grey and full of gravitas. Harper, in turn, looked decisive after “Mr. Dithers,” Paul Martin. Obama looked smooth, poised, and articulate after the inarticulate and slightly boorish George W. Bush.

Note that it is more an issue of manner than anything else.

Trump is a clown. Biden is a clown. Trump is a funnier clown than Biden. Biden loses. I think he loses by a fairly large margin.

That doesn’t mean either Sanders or Bloomberg would win, but they would have more upside potential.

If the economy stays good, Trump probably gets the credit, and people will not be inclined to rock the boat regardless.

But what if the economy goes south? It looks as though we may be heading into a world-wide recession. If so, there could well have been an opening for a button-down technocrat type like Bloomberg. There might have been an opening for someone declaring the system flawed and calling for structural change like Sanders.

But do you want to put another clown in charge of an economy gone wrong?

And then, if you have a choice of two clowns, do you pick the prankster type, the one who plays tricks on others and always seems to end up on top? Or do you pick the bumbling clown, who does not seem to understand what is happening around him?