The Demographic Death of Islam

World fetrility rates in 2012, according to Wikipedia and the CIA World Factbook. Note that Iran and Algeria are already in the lowest category.

I am amazed to learn from David Goldman, aka Spengler, that the demographic cliff that faces the developed world and China is also hitting the Muslim Middle East. I thought they were one region that was immune. Just the reverse. He writes that “the Muslim world is on the brink of the fastest population decline in recorded history.”

By the end of this century, Spengler notes, the working population of Western Europe will fall by two fifths, i.e., 40%. The least fertile countries could fall by 60%, i.e., be down to 40% of their current population. Eastern Europe and East Asia will fall by two thirds, 67%. Imagine China with only 33% of its current population--smaller than the US. This is a good deal bigger than the effects of the Black Death.

The US, on the other hand, will grow by 25% over the same period, if present trends continue. Besides having a higher birth rate, the US economy, US culture, and the US political system have the drawing power and the capacity to assimilate immigrants indefinitely, even if the rest of the world is in demographic decline. Canada has similar advantages, but for the weather.

This is a big reason why I think it is wrong to write off the US as “in decline.” Demographically, it looks instead as though its strength will grow against all likely comers. And demographics are the clearest indicator, I think, of who is heading up and who is heading down. The first sign of despair is no longer wanting children; the first sign of hope is wanting them. Moreover, people are the only true source of wealth.

In this context, it is ominous to note that the Muslim birth rate is apparently falling faster than anyone’s.

The Muslim world is not a rising threat to anyone. The Muslim world is not poised to take over; they have their hands full and more than full merely preserving what they have, especially once their strong position in terms of natural resources (oil) inevitably begins to fade. "Islamism" is perhaps a rear-guard action.