This Justin--Trudeau to Seek Liberal Leadership

Canada's Obama

There’s a lot of excitement about Justin Trudeau becoming a candidate for the Canadian Liberal leadership. A recent poll suggests that, as leader, he would boost Liberal support by 14 points, and lift them from third party to power.

In general, it is not hard to predict what will happen in Canadian politics.

Nearly-New Deal: Canada's FDR

Just look at what is happening in the US, and wait five to seven years.

Canadians are overwhelmingly influenced by the US, whether we admit it or not. If something exciting is going on down there, we want a part of it too. But it tends to take a few years to find a comparable Canadian version, and we are by nature a cautious, conservative people.

I Like John: Canada's Eisenhower.

So: FDR and the New Deal produced the second coming of Mackenzie King as his Canadian counterpart, R.B. Bennett being too reminiscent of Herbert Hoover. FDR hung on and on, so King hung on and on. FDR died, so King had to pass the torch. Diefenbaker was the closest we could manage to Eisenhower—a change, at least, to the more conservative party, and to an old hand. It took us a while to find someone suitable, but Pierre Trudeau’s charisma was our version of JFK’s. Nothing else looked worthy of emulating in the US until we came to Reagan; Canada responded a few years later with Mulroney—a move to the right, and a rather smooth candidate.

Chretien was Clinton; both on the left, both folksy in their appeal. Harper was George W. Bush.

Canada's JFK: PET.

And now, of course, we are looking for our Obama. We want someone youthful and charismatic who seems to represent a dramatic change.

Jack Layton stepped up as the person to fill that bill; hence his great success for the NDP in the last election. He did not win outright, again, because we are a cautious people, and it was not altogether clear that Obama was a success. We’d feel left out if we elected his equivalent in Canada just before the US moved in another direction. We left him in position to take the next election if Obama still looked like the fashion of the day.

But then he died; accordingly, there is an opening for someone else to take up the Obama mantle. It doesn’t fit Tom Mulcair quite so well. He is not as charismatic, and he is a bit sharp, a bit heated, too hot-tempered, and this contrasts too much with Obama’s signature coolness. He may still do, but Trudeau is significantly more Obama-like. Very cool, very charismatic, very youthful.

So here’s what to look for: if Obama loses the election in November, the bloom will immediately be off the rose in Trudeau’s lapel. He may still get the Liberal leadership, but they will go nowhere with him. Harper will then, if he stays on, win the next election. He is a reasonable Romney replica. If, on the other hand, Obama wins, Trudeau has every chance of victory the next election, assuming he does not make some serious mistake or mess up his current image. His real rival then, on which he should focus, is Mulcair.

That and, given his ties to Canada's JFK, the risk of turning out instead to look like Canada's Teddy Kennedy.

Would you carpool with this man?