Deja Vu and the Cairo Embassy

Iranian stamps commemorating the Revolution.

Oh my.

Is foreign affairs, not the economy, going to end up as the focus of this year’s election? And is Obama going to be defeated on foreign affairs?

Up until now, everyone has seen foreign affairs as Obama’s strong suit. This is for two reasons: he got Bin Laden, and he presided over the Arab Spring.

But recently, Obama has been effectively swiftboated on the Bin Laden issue. I don’t mean to imply an organized propaganda campaign. That seems unlikely, since those objecting to his claims seem to come from the small group of Navy SEALs actually involved, and their families. But these guys are taking public offense at his claiming of credit in much the same way the Swift Boat Veterans took offense to John Kerry’s highlighting of his Vietnam service as proof of his heroic patriotism. I expect it will be equally effective this time. And it yanks the carpet from under Obama’s foreign policy cred.

Tehran, 1979.

So far, people have good feelings about the Arab Spring—a win for democracy, like the falling of the Berlin wall, and all that. But that perception may change; free and fair elections in the Arab world are bringing Islamists hostile to the US into power. Now there is the storming of the US Embassy in Egypt, and the consulate in Benghazi, and the rather timid public response from the Embassy. Unfortunately for Obama, it is all reminiscent of the storming of the US Embassy in Tehran in the latter days of the Carter presidency. Might the public perception soon be that Obama has “lost Egypt,” just as Carter “lost Iran” and Truman “lost China”? That seems plausible, and that could hurt.

UPDATE: Apparently the US Ambassador to Libya plus three more embassy staffers were killed in Benghazi. This is looking more and more like the Tehran incident.

It is a pity Romney did not choose Condoleeza Rice for the VP slot, to exploit this opening. That he did not may not have been entirely his fault. Rumour has it that Rice herself was not keen on the job, and refused to change her pro-abortion stance for the opportunity.