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This post is written as Americans actually vote.
First the bad news: the opinion polls did not get closer in the last few days. Every single poll showed Obama ahead at the end, even by a growing margin. It looks as though his half-hour TV pitch worked for him. And Obama's grandmother dying the day before the election will win him sympathy votes.
On the other hand, Obama's comments on “bankrupting” anyone who builds a coal plant may help McCain at the last minute in some key states. West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Montana, Colorado, Indiana, and North Dakota are all in the top ten of coal-producing states, and all close contests. Virginia, New Mexico, and Ohio are not far behind. If all those close states now go to McCain, he wins.
And we can still hope for the Bradley effect to be big enough to take McCain over the top. If it is ten points or more, added to just about all the polls, it wins McCain the popular vote.
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