Georgia on My Mind

This Russian incursion into Georgia strikes me as fantastically dangerous. It is hauntingly like the situation that started World War I. Like Austria-Hungary then, Russia is gambling that an interlocking international system of alliances will not come into play. If it does, big war.

But if it does not, and the result is anything more favourable to Russia than the status quo ante, the situation is just as hauntingly similar to that which began WWII. The US will have lost a lot of prestige; Russia will be encouraged to settle more scores. The US and Nato will have abandoned an ally just as Chamberlain and Daladier backed down from confronting Hitler's early aggressions.

This being so, will the US just stand by, wring its hands, and loudly complain? Georgia was close to becoming a member of Nato—which would have obliged all the Nato countries to help it defend itself against such an aggression.

The fact that this took place immediately after the start of the Olympics looks highly suspicious. Someone is trying to get away with something while the world's face is averted. Trouble is, is it Georgia, seeking to wipe out the enclave of South Ossetia; or is it Russia, seeking to humble Georgia? The president of Georgia claims the Russians have been building up on his borders for months, and that the Georgian action in South Ossetia was in reaction to the first Russian tanks actually crossing the border. Who knows where the truth lies?

Normally, in international law, it would not matter. South Ossetia is part of Georgia; what the Georgian government does there cannot justify an invasion by a foreign power. Full stop. The strength of the Russian attack also suggests it is the Russians who are trying to pull something. This looks like it was carefully planned militarily.

Unfortunately, here Kosovo's pigeons come home to roost. As I pointed out at the time, albeit before this blog existed, the Nato intervention in Kosovo was both illegal and a terrible precedent in international law. It established the right to invade a sovereign nation. On that basis, there is no longer any grounds for the rest of the world, or at least the US, UK, and Nato, to object now. They would also have been hard pressed, on the Kosovo precedent, to object to Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia and Poland to, as he claimed, protect the German minorities there. Thanks, Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.

It is perfectly obvious why it would be in Russia's interests to precipitate this conflict. If they get away with it, they put fear in the hearts of all the border nations relying on their newfound ties with the West. This could start a process of what used to be called “Finlandization,” a reestablished de facto Russian hegemony in the area. Everyone would have to hedge their bets. As an added bonus, Georgia has the sole pipeline competing with Russia as an outlet for the oilfields of Central Asia. If and when Russia can effectively control it as well, Europe and Central Asia will also both be obliged to take Russia's wishes into account in all things.

It's a real mess. Russians are chess players, and they have calculated this move well. The only bright spot is that it should boost McCain's election chances. His foreign policy and military experience are what this calls for in the next US president.

Great quote:

“The reaction of the Obama campaign to this crisis, so at odds with our democratic allies and yet so bizarrely in sync with Moscow, doesn't merely raise questions about Senator Obama's judgment--it answers them.”

--Tucker Bounds, McCain campaign spokesman