Canada's Conservative Future

A sea-change is taking place in Quebec, which may secure power for the Conservatives for a generation.

Since the 1970s, politics in Quebec have been distorted by the separatism issue. Whereas elsewhere in Canada, and the world, the primary political choice was between left and right, in Quebec, since the delcine of the Union Nationale and rise of the PQ, it has been between sovereignty and federalism. This, and the importance of the question, generally left room for only one separatist party, and one federalist party. No one dared split their vote.

But the situation was anomalous, because both the federalist and the separatist party were essentially left-wing. The Conservatives were usually the odd man out.

Now, however, the separatist option seems to be receding in the popular mind, and the opposite phenomenon is occurring. Provincially, Action Democratique has emerged as an important conservative player. Federally, as ideology begins to trump sovereignty, Conservatives hold the best hand: they become the only party representing the right, while the left is split between two factions, Liberals and PQ.

This should almost ensure a Quebec Conservative majority for the foreseeable future, until and unless one of the other two parties manages to bury the other—and even then, only if it is the Liberals who bury the BQ.

Adding that to Tory strength in Western Canada, a region growing in population, wealth, and representation in parliament, the Conservatives should be hard to beat for the next generation or so.