Debates Wrapup

Herr Goebbels scores a debating point against Herr Godwin.

Miscellaneous thoughts on yesterday's debates.

First, I confess that I saw only the Canadian leaders' debate. I do not have access to Fox News at the moment, and so have seen only highlights of the American debates. That being so, perhaps my first comment should be on the Canadians.

Having slept on it, I think Mulcair's performance was much worse than I at first thought. The sense of something ominous grows on you. I think the impression he left of insincerity and barely repressed anger could be a big problem: asking people to vote NDP this time, with government in prospect, is asking for a leap of faith, a departure from the familiar. Would you, after all, buy a used car from this man? I see in online comments that others also get this vibe from Mulcair as of last night.

At the same time, as I said, although he was competent, Trudeau really failed to set himself up as an alternative. He was too quiet, grappled, when he did, most memorably with Mulcair rather than Harper, seemed a bit uneasy, ummed a lot, and looked disconcertingly young. Great performance were he running for student council president.

The leader who did set herself up as a credible alternative, unfortunately, was Elizabeth May. Great for May, but also a gift to the Conservatives. A three-way instead of a two-way split in the opposition vote.

All that said, viewership was low and the race has only begun.

On the Americans: everyone agrees that Carly Fiorina won the undercard debate, and I am part of everyone. But the case is rather like that of Elizabeth May: where does this go? She is too politically inexperienced to have a credible claim to the nomination, and even her business resume is spotty. Given that she is a great asset in a campaign, what does the Republican Party do with her?

In the unlikely event that Clinton gets the Democrats' nomination, Fiorina absolutely should be the VP pick. If not, make her ambassador to the UN.

Nobody clearly won the evening debate. However, I think strategically it was a bad night for Trump. Viewership was through the roof: Trump did that with his celebrity. Unfortunately for him, he just drew the rubes in to hear and get to know his competition a little better. He had nowhere to go but down, and they had nowhere to go but up, by sharing the stage. So a draw goes against Trump.

And I think that, for him, it was a bit worse than a draw. I think his veiled threat to Megyn Kelly was beyond the pale. For me, it was a bit of a suck in your breath moment. I don't think most folks are comfortable with addressing a woman in that way. Especially a very pretty one. It might have solidified the suspicion that Trump is in the end just a bully. It should have; there is something morally damaged about the American public, I fear, if it did not.

Robespierre cutting his physically much larger colleague Danton down to size.

Another loser: Rand Paul. He took on Trump almost immediately, and then had a sharp exchange with Christie, albeit one he did not initiate. It might have worked for some, but it did not look good on him. And angry Paul, with tousled hair and bulging eyes, looked like a pipsqueak: one of those short skinny guys who, given a little power, compensate by picking fights and bullying others. A Robespierre, a Goebbels. Being ideological tends to go with the territory.

Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio probably get a boost in the polls. They are both charismatic, highly talented politicians, good with words, and the exposure helped demonstrate that. Some may now be looking for an alternative to Trump, someone who also seems like an unapologetic straight-talker, and they, based on debate performance, along with Fiorina, most closely fit that bill.

To some extent, Kasich did the same thing, but more plausibly as a substitute for Jeb Bush among more moderate GOPers than for Trump.

The Canadian Leaders' Debate

Immediate response to the Canadian leaders'debate: Everyone did well, but Harper won the beauty contest. He seemed the most relaxed and friendly. He gave the sense of talking straight.

Mulcair established himself as the chief rival to Harper. He seemed to have a lot of substance to say. He did seem nervous, though. This came across as either insincerity or perhaps repressed anger, either of which are troubling. He flubbed his final statement, leaving with a bad impression,

Trudeau seemed prepped and polished. But he seemed a little callow in interrupting early on. He may have realized this, and pulled back as a result. Unfortunately, this left him looking like he was less engaged in the debate than Mulcair, letting the latter look like the chief alternative to Harper, and so solidified a sense of himself as number three.

That's Debatable

Kennedy vs. Nixon, 1960.

In both Canada and the US, we are about to hear the first candidate debates of the current elections. My great regret, as a political junkie, is that the Canadian and US debates are scheduled, as usual, for the same time. This is done, of course, because were it not so, few in Canada would be watching. They would just switch to some American network for the regular programming.

They are not, of course, really “debates.” There is no topic. Nobody expects to hear a new argument; there is little opportunity to build one. In their debates in 2004, I think John Kerry clearly bested George Bush in terms of debating points. Yet Bush “won,” largely by ignoring any semblance of debate and repeating familiar points. The same thing happened in the Canadian leaders' debates in 2008. Stephane Dion, Jack Layton, Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe all piled on Stephen Harper. Harper mostly just sat there and smiled, making his own case, responding to nothing. By debate rules, he lost badly. Yet polls said he won the debate, and he won the election. The others seemed angry; people admired Harper for taking it all calmly.

So these are not so much “debates” as joint press conferences, or, better, beauty contests. We watch and listen not to be persuaded by argument, but for blunders or zingers. It's kind of like watching a stock car race: we're mostly looking for a crack-up. One might see this as unkind and unworthy. Or one might see this as trying to discern something about the candidates' characters.

This was obvious from the very first famous televised candidates' debate, Kennedy-Nixon, in 1960. On points, most agree, Nixon at least held his own. But in political terms, Nixon lost badly, so badly that he refused ever to debate anyone again. His problem was that Kennedy looked relaxed and natural, whereas he looked stiff and uncomfortable.

And so it has been ever since.

The gaffe I remember best personally was Gerald Ford's insistence, against Carter in 1976, that Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination. Ford confirmed the suspicion that he was in way over his head as President, that he was in the end a local pol with no wider vision than the next Rotary Club luncheon. It was not that Carter or Ford had made any kind of coherent point here; just a revelation of Ford's insufficiency.

In Canada, perhaps the best remembered score in debate is Mulroney's “you had a choice, sir. You could have said no” against Turner in 1984. But this was not argument; it was a simple negation of Turner's immediately prior statement that he “had no choice” (in making a batch of political appointments immediately on becoming prime minister. His larger claim was that this was part of a deal made with his predecessor, Trudeau). Again, this was not debate, not even a point scored by Mulroney, but a self-inflicted wound. It was the claim to have no control that killed Turner; Mulroney merely echoed the obvious. What kind of leader was this, who started out by refusing to take responsibility?

Tuner nailed himself again, at least in my opinion, on his second go-round with Mulroney in 1988, with the phrase most people remember from that debate: “I happen to think that you've sold us out” (speaking of free trade). To me, at least, that phrase, “happen to think,” implied either a misunderstanding of what thought actually entailed, or a lack of principle. As if political positions, in Turner's mind, could honourably be put on or taken off at whim, without any larger body of thought behind them. This was the more striking, to me, because opposition to free trade went against bedrock liberal principles; and Turner was leader of the Liberal Party. I'm not sure anyone but I noticed; but it made it impossible for me to vote for him.

Another famous line from a debate is Lloyd Bentsen's against Dan Quayle in 1988: “I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. And senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.” But in fact, this was not an argument at all, and was, as Quayle responded at the time, “uncalled for.” First, it was ad hominem, and second, it was non sequitor. Quayle had not said he was like John Kennedy in any sense but his relative lack of experience. It worked, because it suggested Quayle was both inexperienced and callow.

Michael Dukakis blundered badly during the same campaign by taking a debate to actually be a debate. Asked if he would change his mind on opposing the death penalty if someone raped and killed his wife Kitty, he answered, properly, that his position opposing capital punishment was perfectly consistent. But the answer made him come across to the audience as a soulless suit.

Then there's Rick Perry's “oops” in the 2012 Republican debates. Obviously, no debate points scored. Ron Paul, at the next podium, even tried to help jog Perry's memory. It was the kind of memory freeze anyone could have. But it destroyed Perry's hyper-macho image. James Bond is not supposed to slip on the soap.

Reagan's “I paid for this microphone” in 1980 erased the suspicion that he was just too easygoing to be effective as president. His “I will not use my opponent's youth and inexperience against him” was a response to a moderator's question, not to anything raised by Walter Mondale. And, of course, it involved no argument.

Ali vs. Liston, 1965.

Then there's Stockdale's “Why am I here?” in the 1992 VP debates. Okay, that had no legitimate point or purpose, since he had no chance of becoming VP anyway. It was just an awesome car crash.

So what does this mean? First, it is not unreasonable that we judge our candidates this way. Issues come and go over the course of four years. We have other ways of learning our politicians' stands. It makes sense instead to try to grasp their character. If there turns out to be a big disparity between their public and their private character, this is of limited importance. As a leader primarily of people who will only ever see them on TV, their public character is more relevant than their private persona anyway to their ability to lead.

At the same time, these “debates” run the risk of seriously debasing the popular idea of what a debate is or should be. This is important, because the ability to debate properly is a sine qua non of democracy.