Canadian Election This Fall

 

It seems clear from Justin Trudeau’s press conference today that the Liberal government is going to force or call an election for early this fall.

Everything is aligned perfectly for them. The vaccines are flooding in, and soon the pandemic should be over. People are likely to be feeling elated over that. A late summer-early fall election is generally considered favourable for the ruling party, as people feel happy at that time of year, after the summer. The Green Party is in disarray, and one of their members has defected to the Liberals. The latter may have realistic hopes of pulling in some votes from that quarter. The Conservatives under Erin O’Toole seem to be making no waves in the polls.

And, of course, as a minority government, the Liberals are bound to jump if they see a chance for a majority.

But I do see a chance for an upset.

To begin with, if the Conservatives start looking weak, there is less incentive on the left to rally around the Liberals to prevent a Tory win. The NDP might siphon off votes. Quebec is always volatile, and might swing Conservative during the campaign. The provincial government is small-c conservative, and this suggests the electorate is tired of decades of “progressive” government. Inflation could become an issue, thanks to government spending.

It could go either way.